Philippines Conference Room
This talk scrutinizes the relationship between individual attitudes towards democracy and such contextual characteristics as the institutional framework and the level of socioeconomic development. For this purpose the individual evaluation of a democratic rule, experts rule, army rule, and a strong leader rule is considered. The analysis discovers a strong relationship between the individual political attitudes and different contextual factors. In particular, it turns out that pre-democratic views vary at both the national and the regional level. Democratic values, on the other hand, are rather evenly distributed within countries but also vary among countries. One finding is that the socioeconomic level has a strong impact on the occurrence of pre-democratic values. For those holding strong democratic beliefs, institutional factors such as the absence of an authoritarian regime in the recent past become more important than the socioeconomic level.
Encina Basement Conference Room
Thomas Carothers is a leading authority on democracy promotion and democratization worldwide as well as an expert on U.S. foreign policy generally. He is the founder and director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Project which analyzes the state of democracy in the world and the efforts by the United States and other countries to promote democracy. In addition, he has broad experience in matters dealing with human rights, international law, foreign aid, rule of law, and civil society development. He is the author or editor of six critically acclaimed books on democracy promotion as well as many articles in prominent journals and newspapers. He is adjunct professor at the Central European University in Budapest and serves on the board of various organizations devoted to democracy promotion.Prior to joining the Endowment, Carothers practiced international and financial law at Arnold & Porter and served as an attorney-adviser in the Office of the Legal Adviser of the U.S. Department of State.
Encina Basement Conference Room
We know the terrorist threat: an atomic bomb exploding in downtown Manhattan, a roadside bomb in Las Cruces, New Mexico. Yet Congress, against the wishes of New York's Senator Schumer, voted down a bill that would have facilitated complete surveillance of radio activity, the sort of surveillance that might actually prevent the demise of NYC. The price tag was $100 million of initial funding and it would have cost $100 billion altogether--expensive then, but cheap after Iraq and Katrina. So where are we now? We have still have terrorist threats and still have limited protection.
In my talk I want to give an affordable solution: mathematical modeling, using an even more magical bullet: Reflexive Theory. If we talk about security and cooperation, we need one thing, as important as the frontal lobe: a model of the self! That is, we need Reflexive Theory.
My presentation will be an exciting journey through a contemporary approach to counter-terrorism, based on the work of the famous mathematical psychologist Vladimir Lefebvre.
Stefan E. Schmidt is CEO of the research company Phoenix Mathematical Systems Modeling, Inc.; he is also a member of the graduate faculty of the Department of Mathematical Sciences at New Mexico State University and a fellow of the Center for Advanced Defense Studies. For the past five years, he has been working as Senior Research Scientist at the Physical Science Laboratory of New Mexico State University.
From fall 2004 to 2005, Schmidt was on a one-year professional leave from PSL to follow an invitation as visiting professor at the University of Technology in Dresden, Germany. Between 1995 and 2000, he has held research appointments at the University of California, Berkeley (1995-98), the Mathematical Sciences Research Institute (96/97), the Shannon Laboratory of AT&T (98/99), and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1999-2000).
Previously, after his PhD in 1987 at the University of Technology in Darmstadt, Germany, Schmidt was assistant professor until 1995 at ainz University, Germany (as Hochschulassistent, Habilitation 1993).
Schmidt's scientific research ranges from discrete mathematics to applications in information sciences and network analysis; his expertise covers geometric algebra, order theory, combinatorics, formal concept analysis and reflexive theory--applied to communication networks, agent modeling and systems of systems analysis. His recent work includes modeling and simulating terrorist recruitment via reflexive theory as well as border protection via reflexive control. As a real world application of his scientific methods, he is currently involved in a long-term research project on the stock market (as a market of markets).
Reuben W. Hills Conference Room
Since the accession of ten new member states the European Union has launched a new effort to draw its neighbors, from Ukraine to Morocco, closer to the EU. This engagement goes beyond trade and aid to include participation in various internal EU policies and programs but stops short of offering full membership. Economic and political governance are high on the agenda. Bertin Martens will explain how this effort reinforces previous policies and could contribute to real change in the political and economic landscape around the EU.
Bertin Martens is Regional Economist for the Middle East & South Mediterranean in the European Commission's Directorate General for External Relations. He joined the European Commission in 1990 and has worked on various assignments in Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe before. He holds a PhD in Economics from the Free University of Brussels and has been a Visiting Fellow at George Mason and Stanford universities. His academic research interests focus on institutional economics and governance.
CISAC Conference Room
In the days after 9/11, there was a widespread sentiment that suicidal terrorist attacks were irrational acts well beyond the bounds of quantitative risk assessment. Since then, terrorism risk models have been developed which are based on certain key theoretical principles that are validated by observational terrorism experience. These principles will be elaborated, and illustrated with examples from conflicts around the world.
Gordon Woo is a catastrophist, specializing on mathematical aspects of catastrophe risk modelling. He has developed a quantitative framework for modelling terrorism risk applied e. g. on the Olympic Games 2004 and the 2006 World Cup in Germany. Prior to this, his main focus has been on natural and environmental hazards. He has twenty years of practical experience in consulting for commercial, industrial and government organizations on major public risk issues varying from the disposal of radioactive waste, to oil pollution, flight safety, to earthquake, windstorm and flood protection.
Dr. Woo graduated as the top mathematician of his year at Cambridge University. He completed his PhD in theoretical physics as a Kennedy Scholar at M.I.T., after which he was elected a Junior Fellow of the Harvard University Society of Fellows. His work has been featured in the Wall Street Journal and Newsweek. In July 2004, he was named by Risk & Treasury Magazine as one of the 100 most influential people in finance.
CISAC Conference Room
China's economic growth and integration with global markets is restructuring the world economy and raising issues important to the future of US companies and workers. In the US market, we hear concerns over a range of Chinese trade practices, including subsidies, dumping; and the exchange rate. In the China market, lack of enforcement of IP protections and non-market behaviors, such as subsidies and industrial policies, give rise to concerns that the deck is being stacked against US companies. At the same time, US exports to China continue to grow rapidly and US invested companies report strong profits. Many also note that low cost imports from China keep the cost of living in the US low and enhance the competiveness of some US companies in global markets. President Bush has described our relations with China as "complex." Our economic relationship is the embodiment of that description.
Henry A. (Hank) Levine serves as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Asia in the International Trade Administration's office of Market Access and Compliance. His responsibilities include the market access concerns and compliance with international trade agreements that affect U.S. companies operating in China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Mongolia, and the member countries of ASEAN. In his career State Department Foreign Service Officer, Mr. Levine has served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Europe, the U.S. Consul General in Shanghai, China and Deputy Director for Economic Affairs in the State Department's Office of Chinese Affairs. Mr. Levine has a B.A. in Political Science from Bucknell University. He did graduate work in international affairs at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He is a 1993 graduate, with distinction, from the U.S. National War College. He is fluent in Chinese (Mandarin).
Series Co-sponsored with the Center for East Asian Studies.
Philippines Conference Room
Philippines Conference Room
Between 1870 and 1945, France and Germany fought each other in three bloody wars, each of which left bitter memories and lingering antagonisms in its wake. Bitter memories in turn fed the respective histories of the two neighboring nations, and these became integral features of French and German national identities throughout the first half of the twentieth century. How and when did this begin to change? Siegel will discuss the efforts of twentieth-century French and German historians and teachers to break the intractable cycle of warfare and memory, nationalism and history. Professor Siegel will explore the links between collective memory, scholastic history, and nationalism as well as the complexities of turning history into a tool of international reconciliation. She will explore whether the sequence of events towards reconciliation in France and Germany might be replicable in other environments, notably Asia, in the context of recent events that suggest a rising nationalism in Asia.
Dr. Mona Siegel joined the CSU - Sacramento history faculty in 2003. Her teaching and research interests include modern French history, the history of women and gender, history and memory, peace history, and the history of the world wars. Her current research projects include "The Disarmament of Hatred: History, Truth, and Franco-German Reconciliation from World War I to the Cold War."
Philippines Conference Room
History Department
Bldg 200, Room 311
Stanford, CA 94305-2024
I became interested in Russia at the height of the Cold War and initially studied Russia and Russian with an eye to the foreign service. History lured me way, especially after spending a junior semester at Leningrad State University in 1970 and having the chance to travel around the Soviet Union a bit. In graduate research and since coming to Stanford in 1982, I have focused on the early modern period (from the fourteenth century through the eighteenth). In almost all my work I have been explored the question of how politics worked in an autocracy. Theoretically I am interested in how early modern states, particularly empires, tried to create, at best, social cohesion and, at least, stability, by ritual, ideology, law and the measured use of violence. My early research focused on structures of power at the Kremlin court and the influence of kinship and marriage in politics and on social values from Muscovy to the Enlightenment (Kinship and Politics: The Making of the Muscovite Political System 1987); these themes encouraged my abiding interest in the roles of women in political ideology and practice. I have written two books on legal culture, one on disputes over honor (By Honor Bound 1999) and one on the practice of the criminal law (Crime and Punishment in Early Modern Russia 2012). Here I’ve contrasted the letter of the law with the workings of local courts, how people used the law, how judges and other officials played roles in the system, how the law was written and interpreted. In all this I’ve tried to place Russia in a comparative context where appropriate, trying to break down clichés of Russia being fundamentally different from European history or unknowable.
My current work goes in several directions. One is a turn to the visual -- I have written several articles on the production and use in Russia of icons, frescos and miniatures as a medium for political communication. I am now finishing up a project on images of Russia produced by foreign engravers in early print publications and maps. The tension in these images between stock tropes of the engraver's trade and eye-witness information, is one fascinating aspect; another is the challenge to assess the impact of text and image on the reader. All in all, I have found that most illustrated works about Russia present a more nuanced understanding than the image of “despotism” that has caught a lot of scholarly attention. Finally, I am interested in how Russia functioned as an empire. I recently published a synthetic history (The Russian Empire 1450-1801 2017) of Russia as a “Eurasian politics of different empire,” and I plan to follow up this theme and return to the practice of the law by studying the implementation of Catherine II’s judicial reforms (1775) in the non-Russian provinces.