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Vitali Silitski received his PhD in Political Science from Rutgers University. He worked as an associate professor at the European Humanities University in Minsk, Belarus, a position he was forced to leave in 2003 after publicly criticizing the government of President Alexander Lukashenka. Silitski is currently working on a book titled The Long Road from Tyranny: Post-Communist Authoritarianism and Struggle for Democracy in Serbia and Belarus. Vitali is also a freelance analyst for Freedom House Nations in Transit Report, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and Oxford Analytica. In 2004-2005, he was a Reagan-Fascell Fellow at the National Endowment for Democracy. Vitali will continue as a visiting scholar at CDDRL through early 2007.

Encina Ground Floor Conference Room

CDDRL
Stanford University
Encina Hall C
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 723-4610
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Visiting Scholar from Belarus 2006 - 2007
vitali_website2.jpg PhD

Vitali Silitski received his PhD in Political Science from Rutgers University. He worked as an associate professor at the European Humanities University in Minsk, Belarus, a position he was forced to leave in 2003 after publicly criticizing the government of President Alexander Lukashenka. He is currently working on a book titled The Long Road from Tyranny: Post-Communist Authoritarianism and Struggle for Democracy in Serbia and Belarus. Dr. Silitski is also a freelance analyst for Freedom House Nations in Transit Report, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and Oxford Analytica. In 2004-2005, he was a Reagan-Fascell Fellow at the National Endowment for Democracy.

Vitali Silitski Visiting Scholar from Belarus Speaker CDDRL
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In late September, the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced new guidelines recommending that all Americans ages 13 to 64 be voluntarily screened for HIV infection. That's a significant change from the previous guidelines, which recommended testing only for high-risk individuals, such as injection drug users or those with multiple sex partners.

The new guidelines were influenced by a study published last year in the New England Journal of Medicine, led by Douglas K. Owens, a CHP/PCOR core faculty member and an investigator at the VA Palo Alto. Owens and his colleagues -- including CHP/PCOR researchers Gillian D. Sanders, Vandana Sundaram, Kristof Neukermans and Laura Lazzeroni -- found that expanding HIV screening would be a cost-effective way to increase life expectancy and decrease the transmission of HIV. Below, Owens discusses the research and the CDC's new screening guidelines.

Q. Why does this new policy matter, and whom will it help?

Owens: The policy is a profound change because it advises that all individuals ages 13 to 64 be screened for HIV. It matters because it will identify people who have HIV but don't know it. These people will benefit because they'll have access to life-prolonging drugs that they otherwise might not have received until very late in the course of HIV disease. The rest of the community will also benefit, through reduced transmission of HIV.

Q. How did your findings contribute to the CDC adopting the new guidelines?

Owens: First, we found that widespread screening provides a substantial health benefit to HIV-positive people who are identified through screening and receive anti-retroviral treatment earlier than they would have otherwise. Early treatment added about a year and a half of life expectancy for these people. Second, we found a substantial potential benefit to the community because of reduced transmission of HIV. Transmission is reduced because many people cut down on risky behaviors (such as having unprotected sex) when they're identified as having HIV, and because anti-retroviral treatment makes a person less infectious. Our key finding was that routine screening is cost-effective even if only 1 in 2,000 people who are screened have HIV. This means HIV screening is cost-effective in a much broader group than recognized previously.

Q. How and why did the CDC revise its previous guidelines? What role did you and your colleagues play in the decision-making?

Owens: CDC officials made this change because they saw mounting evidence that the prior approach to screening -- focusing on those with identifiable risk factors -- simply wasn't working. If you test people based on risk behavior, you miss many people who have HIV. Even among people who had easily identified risk behaviors, many of them weren't being tested. We also know that most people who have HIV are diagnosed very late in the disease, when they can't get the full benefit from anti-retroviral therapy.

Our involvement in the decision-making was to help assess the prevalence of HIV at which routine screening would be recommended. Through several conference calls with CDC officials, we presented our work and explained the issues related to cost-effectiveness and prevalence. Based on those results and the results of a similar study from Yale, the agency went in the direction of lowering the threshold for screening quite substantially -- to 1 in 1,000 from a prior threshold of 1 percent.

Q. Will most physicians follow the new guidelines? What can be done to make sure they do?

Owens: That's the big question. The CDC's previous screening guidelines were not widely adopted. The new recommendations are much easier to adopt, because they don't depend on clinicians determining the prevalence of HIV in their patient population. Still, it will take a lot of follow-up to make sure physicians implement the guidelines. One key obstacle will be getting payers to reimburse for HIV testing. That's a critical issue, which the CDC is well aware of.

Q. Some HIV/AIDS advocates object to the new guidelines because they recommend removing two requirements that some states now have: mandatory signed consent forms and counseling before testing. Does removing these requirements pose a big problem?

Owens: It's important to emphasize that the new guidelines say people should always be informed before testing and should be able to decline. Informed consent and pretest counseling had become significant barriers that were preventing people from being tested who should have been tested. Everyone agrees that no one should be tested without their knowledge, but that doesn't mean you need a separate consent form. Of course, the confidentiality of the test results should continue to be carefully protected. I would point out that some states have laws requiring informed consent, but whether they will now change those laws isn't clear.

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Cosponsored with the German Studies Department.

Karl Heinz Bohrer is a journalist, literary editor, professor and magazine editor. He received his doctorate from the University of Heidelberg in 1962 and studied

history, philosophy, German literature, and sociology. His dissertation was on the Geschichtsphilosophie of the German Romantics.

He was appointed Professor for Modern German Literary History at the University of Bielefeld in 1982, where he currently leads a group working on aesthetic theory. In 1983, he became editor (since 1991 co-editor with Kurt Scheel) of the influential Merkur, the "German journal of European thought."

As editor and co-editor of Merkur, Bohrer has attempted to steer aesthetics into the center of public discourse in Germany; Merkur's contents have shifted accordingly in emphasis from the political to the aesthetic realm, but without abandoning commentary on current affairs. The politics of Merkur are at the same time controversial and disengaged, strident and independent.

German Studies Library
Building 260, Pigott Hall
Room 252
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305

Karl Heinz Bohrer Editor of Merkur Speaker
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Ambassador James E. Goodby is a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a research affiliate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He has held several senior government positions dedicated to arms control and nonproliferation, including deputy to the special adviser to the president and secretary of state on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), 2000-2001; special representative of President Clinton for the security and dismantlement of nuclear weapons, 1995-1996; chief negotiator for nuclear threat reduction agreements, 1993-1994, and vice chair of the U.S. delegation to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty talks, 1982-1983. He served as U.S. ambassador to Finland in 1980-1981.

Bart Bernstein is a Professor of American history at Stanford University. He has written very widely on post-World War II American history, including the surrender of Japan at the end of World War II, economic policy, diplomacy, nuclear history, and scientific discovery.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

James Goodby Former U.S. Ambassador; Nonresident Senior Fellow Speaker Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, Brookings Institute
Bart Bernstein Professor of American History Speaker Stanford University
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The Center for Science, Technology and Security Policy at the American Association for the Advancement of Science has assembled a panel of experts to examine the technical aspects of the Reliable Replacement Warhead program. The speaker will discuss the preliminary findings of this panel.

Benn Tannenbaum is Project Director at the Center for Science, Technology and Security Policy. Tannenbaum works on a variety of projects for CSTSP, including drafting policy briefs, tracking legislation, serving as liaison with MacArthur-funded centers and the security policy community, organizing workshops and other meetings, attending Congressional hearings and conducting topical research. He testified before the House Homeland Security Committee on radiation portal monitors. Tannenbaum also serves on the American Physical Society's Panel on Public Affairs and on the Program Committee for the Forum on Physics and Society. Prior to joining AAAS, Tannenbaum worked as a senior research analyst for the Federation of American Scientists. He worked extensively on the FAS paper "Flying Blind"; this paper explores ways to increase the quality and consistency of science advising to the federal government. Before joining FAS, Tannenbaum served as the 2002-2003 American Physical Society Congressional Science Fellow. During his fellowship, Tannenbaum worked for Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-MA) on nonproliferation issues. Before his fellowship, Tannenbaum worked as a postdoctoral rellow at the University of California, Los Angeles. At UCLA, he was involved in the Compact Muon Solenoid experiment at CERN, in Geneva, Switzerland, and the Collider Detector Facility at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory outside Chicago. He received his PhD in particle physics from the University of New Mexico in 1997. His dissertation involved a search for evidence of supersymmetry. None was found.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Benn Tannenbaum Project Director at the Center for Science, Technology and Security Policy Speaker American Association for the Advancement of Science
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The speaker will present European views on current nuclar issues (deterrence, proliferation) and their implications for U.S. policy.

Bruno Tertrais is a senior research fellow at the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (FRS), as well as an associate researcher at the Centres d'études et de recherches internationales (CERI). He is also a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), and contributing editor to Survival. His latest book is War Without End (New York: The New Press, 2005).

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Bruno Tertrais Speaker Foundation for Strategic Research, Paris
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After considering trends in the role of nuclear weapons and some lessons from history, this presentation examines nuclear signaling in the context of the evolving role of nuclear weapons (for deterrence and dissuasion, among other purposes) and likely developments of U.S. nuclear forces and their concepts of operation for regional crises. Following the development of a 2015 regional crisis scenario, the utility of potential signaling options are examined in light of current U.S. nuclear force development trends. Options for future U.S. nuclear force and concepts development for signaling as part of overall tailored deterrence are identified and examined.

Owen Price is a consulting visiting fellow in the Center for Strategic and International Studies International Security Program, on sabbatical until March 2007 from the U.K. Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE), where he has worked for 12 years. Most recently, he led a team of systems engineers working on AWE capability programs, work designed to ensure that AWE continues to be able to design and field new warheads of tasked to do so by the British government. From 2000 to 2003, he led the AWE Verification Research Program, was a technical adviser to the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office, and was a member of the U.K. delegation to the Non-Proliferation Treaty Preparatory Committee Meetings in 2003 and 2004. Price holds an MA in engineering from the University of Cambridge, England, and an MBA in engineering management from the University of Bradford, England. He is currently reading (part time) for an MSc in systems engineering at the U.K. Defense Academy, Cranfield University, Shrivenham, England. He is a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies and is a British national.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Owen Price Speaker Center for Science and International Security
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Roger Errera is a graduate of the Paris Institut d'etudes politiques, the Paris Law School and the ENA, Ecole nationale d'administration. Mr Errera is a former senior member of the Conseil d'Etat, France's Supreme Court for administrative law. He also sat on the Conseil superieur de la magistrature. After having taught extensively in France and abroad, he is presently a Visiting Professor at the Central European University in Budapest.

A former member of the UN Human Rights Committee, Mr. Errera has worked in Central and Eastern Europe as an expert and a consultant for the European Commission of the Council of Europe on legal and judicial issues.

Mr. Errera is the founder and editor of the "Diaspora" series, a collection of essays on Judaica and Jewish affairs published in Paris by Calmann-Levy (33 books published so far). He is the author of a number of articles and essays on judicial review, public law, free speech, freedom of religion, refugee law, judicial independence and accountability, nazism and communism.

Sponsored by the Mediterranean Studies Forum, the Stanford Law School, the History Department, and the Forum on Contemporary Europe.

Lane History Corner
450 Serra Mall, Bldg. 200-307
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305

Roger Errera Former Member of the Conseil d'Etat, France's Supreme Court for Administrative Law Speaker
Lectures

"Ethnicity in Today's Europe" will commence with a Related Presidential Lecture featuring Partha Chatterjee.

Conference Statement

Headlines today blaze with stories about the fate of Europe. There is a sense, both in Europe and around the world, that a sort of "tipping point" has been reached. A recurrent theme is the question of demographics. For instance, how are European social welfare systems going to cope with an aging population? What role will immigrants from outside Europe's borders, both recent and less recent, play in European society? What will be the impact of immigration between the member states of the European Union? What place will Europe's growing population of Muslims have in twenty-first century Europe?

As the ongoing process of unification redraws Europe's borders, as the populations of major European cities become more and more diverse, the question of ethnicity is at the forefront of many of the most important debates on the continent. On the one hand the long history of European national and ethnic identities is at play, as is the legacy of colonialism. On the other, a significant recent upswing in the movement of peoples around the globe has changed the face of Europe, often literally. Movement, of course, from outside Europe's borders into European states. But also, and crucially, movement within the space between Portugal and the Urals. Such movement certainly responds to a number of economic and social needs. At the same time, European conceptions of citizenship, equity, and nationhood often exist in tension with the realities of changing ethnic populations.

The conference "Ethnicity in Today's Europe" at Stanford will address this topic in an interdisciplinary manner. Participants will focus on the question: "What's new about the situation in Europe today?" Bringing together scholars from different disciplines, the conference will provide a historical perspective together with contributions addressing economic, social, cultural, and political issues. Some themes that may be discussed include: how the current situation mirrors or departs from the past; the role of the media in portraying the interaction between different groups; the different perspectives of specific populations within Europe; whether Europe's diversity is best described under the rubric of ethnicity, nationality, race, or some other term; similarities and differences between European nation-states with regard to diversity within their borders. Above all, participants will use their own disciplinary perspective to assess what is at stake in the interaction between peoples in Europe as the twenty-first century gets underway.

"Ethnicity in Today's Europe" is jointly presented by the Forum on Contemporary Europe and the Stanford Humanities Center.

November 7 - Related Presidential Lecture:
Bechtel Conference Center
Encina Hall
616 Serra Street

November 8-9 - Conference Panels:
Stanford Humanities Center
424 Santa Teresa Avenue
Stanford University

Rogers Brubaker Sociology, UCLA Panelist
Leslie Adelson German Studies, Cornell University Panelist
Partha Chatterjee Related Presidential Lecture; Director and Professor of Political Science, Centre for Studies in Social Sciences, Calcutta; Professor of Anthropology, Columbia University, New York Keynote Speaker
Salvador Cardús Ros Sociology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona Panelist
Carole Fink History, Ohio State University Panelist
Alec Hargreaves French, Florida State University Panelist
Kader Konuk Germanic Languages and Literatures, University of Michigan Panelist
Saskia Sassen Sociology, Columbia University Panelist
Bassam Tibi International Relations, University of Göttingen, Germany Panelist
Zelimir Zilnik filmmaker Speaker
Conferences
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Markus Hadler is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Sociology, University of Graz, Austria, and currently Visiting Assistant Professor at the Forum on Contemporary Europe. He also is a member of the International Social Survey Programme (www.issp.org).

His current research focuses on the political culture within Europe and the US. The main emphasis is placed on the interaction between macro level characteristics and individual attitudes and behavior. Here, a core research question is whether political attitudes are influenced stronger by modernization processes or by institutional settings. Other research topics are voting behavior, social inequality, mobility, and methods of empirical research. Most of his research is done in an international comparative view. For this purpose survey data are used and related to country characteristics by multilevel analyses.

Professor Hadler will present the paper, "Anatomy of Political Identity: Determinants of Local, National and European Identities 1995-2003", written by Markus Hadler, Kiyoteru Tsutsui and Lynny Chin. The paper examines how individuals' identification with different levels of collectivity varies across countries, groups and individuals within the

context of the expansion of the European Union (EU) since the 1990s.

Presentation abstract:

Europe's political landscape has changed dramatically during the last decades. Consider the breakdown of the communist system, the emergence of new states, and the ongoing integration and enlargement of the European Union (EU).

At an institutional and policy level, the EU's growth and increasing internal unification are without doubt. However, when it comes to individual attitudes, the acceptance of the integration is less clear ­as proven by the rejection of the EU constitution in the Netherlands and France.

This talk analyzes individual attitudes by using survey data spanning the period from the 1980s to 2006. Three common arguments with regard to the individual identification to Europe are discussed: Whether perceived benefits result in a stronger attachment; whether the ongoing integration results in a higher affiliation; and whether knowledge and education promote European identity.

The results show that changes in individual attitudes and the changes at the European level are only loosely coupled in the case of identity. Professor Hadler will discuss how sociological and social psychological explanations offer additional explanations and insights.

Encina Ground Floor Conference Room

616 Serra Street E112
Stanford, CA
94305-6055

(650) 723-0145 (650) 723-4811
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Visiting Professor, Forum on Contemporary Europe
Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology, University of Graz, Austria
Hadler_Photo.jpg PhD
Markus Hadler is Assistant Professor at the Department of Sociology, University of Graz, Austria, and currently Visiting Assistant Professor at the Forum on Contemporary Europe. He also is a member of the International Social Survey Programme (www.issp.org).

His current research focuses on the political culture within Europe and the US. The main emphasis is placed on the interaction between macro level characteristics and individual attitudes and behavior. Here, a core research question is whether political attitudes are influenced stronger by modernization processes or by institutional settings. Other research topics are voting behavior, social inequality, mobility, and methods of empirical research. Most of his research is done in an international comparative view. For this purpose survey data are used and related to country characteristics by multilevel analyses.

Markus Hadler Visiting Professor Speaker University of Graz, Austria
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