Health Outcomes
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Objective
Inadequate adherence to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) may lead to poor health outcomes and the development of HIV strains that are resistant to HAART. The authors developed a model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of counseling interventions to improve adherence to HAART among men who have sex with men (MSM).

Methods
The authors developed a dynamic compartmental model that incorporates HIV treatment, adherence to treatment, and infection transmission and progression. All data estimates were obtained from secondary sources. The authors evaluated a counseling intervention given prior to initiation of HAART and before all changes in drug regimens, combined with phone-in support while on HAART. They considered a moderate-prevalence and a high-prevalence population of MSM.

Results
If the impact of HIV transmission is ignored, the counseling intervention has a cost-effectiveness ratio of $25,500 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. When HIV transmission is included, the cost-effectiveness ratio is much lower: $7400 and $8700 per QALY gained in the moderate- and high-prevalence populations, respectively. When the intervention is twice as costly per counseling session and half as effective as estimated in the base case (in terms of the number of individuals who become highly adherent, and who remain highly adherent), then the intervention costs $17,100 and $19,600 per QALY gained in the 2 populations, respectively.

Conclusions
Counseling to improve adherence to HAART increased length of life, modestly reduced HIV transmission, and cost substantially less than $50,000 per QALY gained over a wide range of assumptions but did not reduce the proportion of drug-resistant strains. Such counseling provides only modest benefit as a tool for HIV prevention but can provide significant benefit for individual patients at an affordable cost.

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Medical Decision Making
Authors
Douglas K. Owens
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Context: Studies of prostitution have focused largely on individuals involved in the commercial sex trade, with an emphasis on understanding the public health effect of this behavior. However, a broader understanding of how prostitution affects mental and physical health is needed. In particular, the study of prostitution among individuals in substance use treatment would improve efforts to provide comprehensive treatment. Objectives: To document the prevalence of prostitution among women and men entering substance use treatment, and to test the association between prostitution, physical and mental health, and health care utilization while adjusting for reported history of childhood sexual abuse, a known correlate of prostitution and poor health outcomes.

Design, Setting, and Participants: Cross-sectional, secondary data analysis of 1606 women and 3001 men entering substance use treatment in the United States who completed a semistructured intake interview as part of a larger study. Main Outcome

Measures: Self-reported physical health (respiratory, circulatory, neurological, and internal organ conditions, bloodborne infections) and mental health (depression, anxiety, psychotic symptoms, and suicidal behavior), and use of emergency department, clinic, hospital, or inpatient mental health services within the past year.

Results: Many participants reported prostitution in their lifetime (50.8% of women and 18.5% of men) and in the past year (41.4% of women and 11.2% of men). Prostitution was associated with increased risk for bloodborne viral infections, sexually transmitted diseases, and mental health symptoms. Prostitution was associated with use of emergency care in women and use of inpatient mental health services for men.

Conclusions: Prostitution was common among a sample of individuals entering substance use treatment in the United States and was associated with higher risk of physical and mental health problems. Increased efforts toward understanding prostitution among patients in substance use treatment are warranted. Screening for prostitution in substance use treatment could allow for more comprehensive care to this population.

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Archives of General Psychiatry
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Purpose: One-year adjuvant trastuzumab (AT) therapy, with or without anthracyclines, increases disease-free and overall survival in early-stage HER2/neu-positive breast cancer. We sought to evaluate the cost effectiveness of these regimens, which are expensive and potentially toxic.

Methods: We used a Markov health-state transition model to simulate three adjuvant therapy options for a cohort of 49-year-old women with HER2/neu-positive early-stage breast cancer: conventional chemotherapy without trastuzumab; anthracycline-based AT regimens used in the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project B-31 and North Central Cancer Treatment Group N9831 trials; and the nonanthracycline AT regimen used in the Breast Cancer International Research group 006 trial. The base case used treatment efficacy measures reported in the randomized clinical trials of AT. We measured health outcomes in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs in 2005 United States dollars (US$) and subjected results to probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

Results: In the base case, the anthracycline-based AT arm has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $39,982/QALY, whereas the nonanthracycline AT arm is more expensive and less effective; this result is insensitive to changes in recurrence rates, but if there is no benefit after 4 years, ICERs exceed $100,000/QALY for both AT arms. Results are moderately sensitive to variation in breast cancer survival rates and trastuzumab cost, and less sensitive to variations in cardiac toxicity.

Conclusion: AT has an ICER comparable to those for other widely used interventions. Longer clinical follow-up is warranted to evaluate the long-term efficacy and toxicity of different AT regimens.

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Journal of Clinical Oncology
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Context: Without detailed evidence of their effectiveness, pedometers have recently become popular as a tool for motivating physical activity.

Objective: To evaluate the association of pedometer use with physical activity and health outcomes among outpatient adults.

Data Sources: English-language articles from MEDLINE, EMBASE, Sport Discus, PsychINFO, Cochrane Library, Thompson Scientific (formerly known as Thompson ISI), and ERIC (1966-2007); bibliographies of retrieved articles; and conference proceedings.

Study Selection: Studies were eligible for inclusion if they reported an assessment of pedometer use among adult outpatients, reported a change in steps per day, and included more than 5 participants.

Data Extraction and Data Synthesis: Two investigators independently abstracted data about the intervention; participants; number of steps per day; and presence or absence of obesity, diabetes, hypertension, or hyperlipidemia. Data were pooled using random-effects calculations, and meta-regression was performed.

Results: Our searches identified 2246 citations; 26 studies with a total of 2767 participants met inclusion criteria (8 randomized controlled trials [RCTs] and 18 observational studies). The participants' mean (SD) age was 49 (9) years and 85% were women. The mean intervention duration was 18 weeks. In the RCTs, pedometer users significantly increased their physical activity by 2491 steps per day more than control participants (95% confidence interval [CI], 1098-3885 steps per day, P .001). Among the observational studies, pedometer users significantly increased their physical activity by 2183 steps per day over baseline (95% CI, 1571-2796 steps per day, P .0001). Overall, pedometer users increased their physical activity by 26.9% over baseline. An important predictor of increased physical activity was having a step goal such as 10,000 steps per day (P = .001). When data from all studies were combined, pedometer users significantly decreased their body mass index by 0.38 (95% CI, 0.05-0.72; P = .03). This decrease was associated with older age (P = .001) and having a step goal (P = .04). Intervention participants significantly decreased their systolic blood pressure by 3.8 mm Hg (95% CI, 1.7-5.9 mm Hg, P .001). This decrease was associated with greater baseline systolic blood pressure (P = .009) and change in steps per day (P = .08).

Conclusions: The results suggest that the use of a pedometer is associated with significant increases in physical activity and significant decreases in body mass index and blood pressure. Whether these changes are durable over the long term is undetermined.

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Journal of the American Medical Association
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Despite their high levels of poverty and less access to health care, children in immigrant families have better than expected health outcomes compared with children in nonimmigrant families. However, this observation has not been confirmed in children with chronic illness. The objective of this study was to determine whether children with asthma in immigrant families have better than expected health status than children with asthma in nonimmigrant families.

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Ambulatory Pediatrics
Authors
Paul H. Wise
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BACKGROUND: To provide quantitative insight into current U.S. policy choices for cervical cancer prevention, we developed a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer, explicitly incorporating uncertainty about the natural history of disease. METHODS: We developed a stochastic microsimulation of cervical cancer that distinguishes different HPV types by their incidence, clearance, persistence, and progression. Input parameter sets were sampled randomly from uniform distributions, and simulations undertaken with each set. Through systematic reviews and formal data synthesis, we established multiple epidemiologic targets for model calibration, including age-specific prevalence of HPV by type, age-specific prevalence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), HPV type distribution within CIN and cancer, and age-specific cancer incidence. For each set of sampled input parameters, likelihood-based goodness-of-fit (GOF) scores were computed based on comparisons between model-predicted outcomes and calibration targets. Using 50 randomly resampled, good-fitting parameter sets, we assessed the external consistency and face validity of the model, comparing predicted screening outcomes to independent data. To illustrate the advantage of this approach in reflecting parameter uncertainty, we used the 50 sets to project the distribution of health outcomes in U.S. women under different cervical cancer prevention strategies. RESULTS: Approximately 200 good-fitting parameter sets were identified from 1,000,000 simulated sets. Modeled screening outcomes were externally consistent with results from multiple independent data sources. Based on 50 good-fitting parameter sets, the expected reductions in lifetime risk of cancer with annual or biennial screening were 76% (range across 50 sets: 69-82%) and 69% (60-77%), respectively. The reduction from vaccination alone was 75%, although it ranged from 60% to 88%, reflecting considerable parameter uncertainty about the natural history of type-specific HPV infection. The uncertainty surrounding the model-predicted reduction in cervical cancer incidence narrowed substantially when vaccination was combined with every-5-year screening, with a mean reduction of 89% and range of 83% to 95%. CONCLUSION: We demonstrate an approach to parameterization, calibration and performance evaluation for a U.S. cervical cancer microsimulation model intended to provide qualitative and quantitative inputs into decisions that must be taken before long-term data on vaccination outcomes become available. This approach allows for a rigorous and comprehensive description of policy-relevant uncertainty about health outcomes under alternative cancer prevention strategies. The model provides a tool that can accommodate new information, and can be modified as needed, to iteratively assess the expected benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different policies in the U.S.

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Population Health Metrics
Authors
Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
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Objectives: The goal of this technical review is to critically examine the issue of care coordination for children with special health care needs (CSHCN). Of particular interest is the knowledge base relating to those aspects of care coordination for CSHCN that are of greatest importance to current practice and policy challenges.

Review Methods: A structured search and review of the literature was conducted to address the following issues:

  1. Analytic approaches and definitions used for care coordination strategies for CSHCN.
  2. Evidence for best practices of care coordination for CSHCN.
  3. Evidence for the impact of managed care for CSHCN enrolled in Medicaid.

Results: Among the principal findings are:

  1. Despite considerable progress in defining care coordination and CSHCN, there remains considerable variation in current analytic approaches and definitions.
  2. Some progress has been made in developing care coordination strategies for CSHCN.
  3. There is a major need to evaluate the impact of these strategies on health outcomes and costs.
  4. Continued progress in care coordination for CSHCN may depend upon the replication and evaluation of promising strategies in different practice settings and under different reimbursement policies.
  5. The constructive assessment of enhanced care coordination programs in managed care systems would be facilitated by new, more focused metrics and performance measures.
  6. There is little evidence regarding the impact of managed care systems on CSHCN enrolled in Medicaid.

Recommendations: Among the principal recommendations are:

  1. Increase support for efforts to identify in a standard manner CSHCN in large administrative or clinical datasets.
  2. Expand efforts to evaluate care coordination interventions for CSHCN, particularly in managed care settings.
  3. Develop capacity and performance standards of direct relevance for CSHCN for managed care plans.
  4. Link development of care coordination programs for CSHCN to emerging practice and health system reforms.
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Working Papers
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Stanford-UCSF Evidence-based Practice Center, for the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality
Authors
Paul H. Wise
Number
Publication No. 07-0054

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Professor, Medicine
Professor, Health Policy
Senior Fellow, by courtesy, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment
eran_bendavid MD, MS

My academic focus is on global health, health policy, infectious diseases, environmental changes, and population health. Our research primarily addresses how health policies and environmental changes affect health outcomes worldwide, with a special emphasis on population living in impoverished conditions.

Our recent publications in journals like Nature, Lancet, and JAMA Pediatrics include studies on the impact of tropical cyclones on population health and the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infectivity in children. These works are part of my broader effort to understand the health consequences of environmental and policy changes.

Collaborating with trainees and leading academics in global health, our group's research interests also involve analyzing the relationship between health aid policies and their effects on child health and family planning in sub-Saharan Africa. My research typically aims to inform policy decisions and deepen the understanding of complex health dynamics.

Current projects focus on the health and social effects of pollution and natural hazards, as well as the extended implications of war on health, particularly among children and women.

Specific projects we have ongoing include:

  • What do global warming and demographic shifts imply for the population exposure to extreme heat and extreme cold events?

  • What are the implications of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) on delivery of basic health services such as vaccinations in low-income contexts?

  • What effect do malaria control programs have on child mortality?

  • What is the evidence that foreign aid for health is good diplomacy?

  • How can we compare health inequalities across countries? Is health in the U.S. uniquely unequal? 

     

CV

This study was the first to synthesize quantitatively the literature on the effectiveness of pedometers to change physical activity and health outcomes among the elderly.  Preliminary results were presented at the Stanford Prevention Research Center (March 2007) and at the Northern California regional Society for General Internal Medicine (SGIM) Meeting (March 2007), where it won the award for best presentation.  The project was also presented at the International SGIM Meeting in Toronto in April 2007 and received a great deal of media attention.  The results of this study we

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