Winter Quarter Japan Seminar Series

Background. The optimal community-level approach to control pandemic influenza is unknown. Methods. We estimated the health outcomes and costs of combinations of 4 social distancing strategies and 2 antiviral medication strategies to mitigate an influenza pandemic for a demographically typical US community. We used a social network, agent-based model to estimate strategy effectiveness and an economic model to estimate health resource use and costs. We used data from the literature to estimate clinical outcomes and health care utilization. Results. At 1% influenza mortality, moderate infectivity (R(o) of 2.1 or greater), and 60% population compliance, the preferred strategy is adult and child social distancing, school closure, and antiviral treatment and prophylaxis. This strategy reduces the prevalence of cases in the population from 35% to 10%, averts 2480 cases per 10,000 population, costs $2700 per case averted, and costs $31,300 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, compared with the same strategy without school closure. The addition of school closure to adult and child social distancing and antiviral treatment and prophylaxis, if available, is not cost-effective for viral strains with low infectivity (R(o) of 1.6 and below) and low case fatality rates (below 1%). High population compliance lowers costs to society substantially when the pandemic strain is severe (R(o) of 2.1 or greater). Conclusions. Multilayered mitigation strategies that include adult and child social distancing, use of antivirals, and school closure are cost-effective for a moderate to severe pandemic. Choice of strategy should be driven by the severity of the pandemic, as defined by the case fatality rate and infectivity.

The majority of rural residents in China are dependent on traditional fuels, but the quality and quantity of existing data on the process of fuel switching in rural China are insufficient to have a clear picture of current conditions and a well-grounded outlook for the future.

Based on an analysis of a rural household survey data in Hubei province in 2004, we explore patterns of residential fuel use within the conceptual framework of
fuel switching using statistical approaches. Cross-sectional data show that the transition from biomass to modern commercial sources is still at an early stage, incomes may have to rise substantially in order for absolute biomass use to fall, and residential fuel use varies tremendously across geographic regions due to disparities in availability of different energy sources. Regression analysis using logit and tobit models suggest that income, fuel prices, demographic characteristics, and topography have significant effects on fuel switching.

Moreover, while switching is occurring, the commercial energy source which appears to be the principal substitute for biomass in rural households is coal. Given that burning coal in the household is a major contributor to general air pollution in China and to negative health outcomes due to indoor air pollution, further transition to modern and clean fuels such as biogas, LPG, natural gas and electricity is important. Further income growth induced by New Countryside Construction and improvement of modern and clean energy accessibility will play a critical role in the switching process.

Prior studies suggest patient self-testing (PST) of prothrombin time (PT) can improve the quality of anticoagulation (AC) and reduce complications (e.g., bleeding and thromboembolic events). "The Home INR Study" (THINRS) compared AC management with frequent PST using a home monitoring device to high-quality AC management (HQACM) with clinic-based monitoring on major health outcomes. A key clinical and policy question is whether and which patients can successfully use such devices. We report the results of Part 1 of THINRS in which patients and caregivers were evaluated for their ability to perform PST. Study-eligible patients (n = 3643) were trained to use the home monitoring device and evaluated after 2-4 weeks for PST competency. Information about demographics, medical history, warfarin use, medications, plus measures of numeracy, literacy, cognition, dexterity, and satisfaction with AC were collected. Approximately 80% (2931 of 3643) of patients trained on PST demonstrated competency; of these, 8% (238) required caregiver assistance. Testers who were not competent to perform PST had higher numbers of practice attempts, higher cuvette wastage, and were less able to perform a fingerstick or obtain blood for the cuvette in a timely fashion. Factors associated with failure to pass PST training included increased age, previous stroke history, poor cognition, and poor manual dexterity. A majority of patients were able to perform PST. Successful home monitoring of PT with a PST device required adequate levels of cognition and manual dexterity. Training a caregiver modestly increased the proportion of patients who can perform PST.

Background: Many patients with hypertension have legitimate reasons to forego standard blood pressure targets yet are nonetheless included in performance measurement systems. An approach to performance measurement incorporating clinical reasoning was developed to determine which patients to include in a performance measure.

Design: A 10-member multispecialty advisory panel refined a taxonomy of situations in which the balance of benefits and harms of anti-hypertensive treatment does not clearly favor tight blood pressure control (< 140/90 mm Hg).

Findings: The panel identified several broad categories of reasons for exempting a patient from performance measurement for blood pressure control. These included

1. patients who have suffered adverse effects from multiple classes of antihypertensive medications;
   
2. patients already taking four or more antihypertensive medications;
   
3. patients with terminal disease, moderate to severe dementia, or other conditions that overwhelmingly dominate the patient's clinical status; and
   
4. other patient factors, including comfort care orientation and poor medication adherence despite attempts to remedy adherence difficulties.

Several general principles also emerged. Performance measurement should focus on patients for whom the benefits of treatment clearly outweigh the harms and should incorporate a longitudinal approach. In addition, the criteria for exempting a patient from performance measurement should be more strict in patients at higher risk of adverse health outcomes from hypertension and more lenient for patients at lower risk.

Conclusions: Incorporating "real world" clinical principles and judgment into performance measurement systems may improve targeting of care and, by accounting for patient case mix, allow for better comparison of performance between institutions.

BACKGROUND: The CDC recommends routine voluntary HIV testing of all patients 13-64 years of age. Despite this recommendation, HIV testing rates are low even among those at identifiable risk, and many patients do not return to receive their results. OBJECTIVE: To examine the costs and benefits of strategies to improve HIV testing and receipt of results. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis based on a Markov model. Acceptance of testing, return rates, and related costs were derived from a randomized trial of 251 patients; long-term costs and health outcomes were derived from the literature. SETTING/TARGET POPULATION: Primary-care patients with unknown HIV status. INTERVENTIONS: Comparison of three intervention models for HIV counseling and testing: Model A = traditional HIV counseling and testing; Model B = nurse-initiated routine screening with traditional HIV testing and counseling; Model C = nurse-initiated routine screening with rapid HIV testing and streamlined counseling. MAIN MEASURES: Life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs and incremental cost-effectiveness. KEY RESULTS: Without consideration of the benefit from reduced HIV transmission, Model A resulted in per-patient lifetime discounted costs of $48,650 and benefits of 16.271 QALYs. Model B increased lifetime costs by $53 and benefits by 0.0013 QALYs (corresponding to 0.48 quality-adjusted life days). Model C cost $66 more than Model A with an increase of 0.0018 QALYs (0.66 quality-adjusted life days) and an incremental cost-effectiveness of $36,390/QALY. When we included the benefit from reduced HIV transmission, Model C cost $10,660/QALY relative to Model A. The cost-effectiveness of Model C was robust in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In a primary-care population, nurse-initiated routine screening with rapid HIV testing and streamlined counseling increased rates of testing and receipt of test results and was cost-effective compared with traditional HIV testing strategies.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this review was to evaluate the impact of managed care on publicly insured children with special health care needs (CSHCN).

METHODS: We conducted a review of the extant literature. Using a formal computerized search, with search terms reflecting 7 specific outcome categories, we summarized study findings and study quality.

RESULTS: We identified 13 peer-reviewed articles that evaluated the impact of Medicaid and State Children's Health Insurance program (SCHIP) Managed Care (MSMC) on health services delivery to populations of CSHCN, with all studies observational in design. Considered in total, the available scientific evidence is varied. Findings concerning care access demonstrate a positive effect of MSMC; findings concerning care utilization were mixed. Little information was identified concerning health care quality, satisfaction, costs, or health status, whereas no study yielded evidence on family impact.

CONCLUSION: The available studies suggest that the evaluated record of MSMC for CSHCN has been mixed, with considerable heterogeneity in the definition of CSHCN, program design, and measured outcomes. These findings suggest caution should be exercised in implementing MSMC for CSHCN and that greater emphasis on health outcomes and cost evaluations is warranted. 2010 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

BACKGROUND: The optimal community-level approach to control pandemic influenza is unknown. METHODS: We estimated the health outcomes and costs of combinations of 4 social distancing strategies and 2 antiviral medication strategies to mitigate an influenza pandemic for a demographically typical US community. We used a social network, agent-based model to estimate strategy effectiveness and an economic model to estimate health resource use and costs. We used data from the literature to estimate clinical outcomes and health care utilization. RESULTS: At 1% influenza mortality, moderate infectivity (R(o) of 2.1 or greater), and 60% population compliance, the preferred strategy is adult and child social distancing, school closure, and antiviral treatment and prophylaxis. This strategy reduces the prevalence of cases in the population from 35% to 10%, averts 2480 cases per 10,000 population, costs $2700 per case averted, and costs $31,300 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, compared with the same strategy without school closure. The addition of school closure to adult and child social distancing and antiviral treatment and prophylaxis, if available, is not cost-effective for viral strains with low infectivity (R(o) of 1.6 and below) and low case fatality rates (below 1%). High population compliance lowers costs to society substantially when the pandemic strain is severe (R(o) of 2.1 or greater). CONCLUSIONS: Multilayered mitigation strategies that include adult and child social distancing, use of antivirals, and school closure are cost-effective for a moderate to severe pandemic. Choice of strategy should be driven by the severity of the pandemic, as defined by the case fatality rate and infectivity.

The utility of the life-course framework to address disparities in child health is based on its ability to integrate the science of child development with the requirements of effective and just public policy. I argue that the life-course framework is best assessed in a historical context and through 4 essential observations. First, early genetic and environmental interactions are complex and influence outcomes in different settings in very different ways. Second, these early-life interactions are themselves subject to considerable later influences and, therefore, may not be highly predictive of later outcomes. Third, the etiologic nature or timing of early-life interactions does not, per se, determine if their life-course effects are amenable to later interventions. Fourth, a highly deterministic view of early-life interactions is not supported by the science and can generate counterproductive approaches to research and policy development. Finally, an alternative approach is proposed on the basis of a "human-capacity" model of the life course that connects the search for underlying basic mechanisms with a policy-based examination of the comparative effectiveness of influences at different developmental stages. This approach suggests an expanded research and policy agenda that might be more capable of generating urgently needed strategies for reducing disparities in child health. Such an approach could ultimately define more comprehensively the power and limits of life-course effects in shaping the social distribution of health outcomes in the real world.