The Luxury Goods Vote: Why the Left Loses from Asymmetric Electoral Accountability
Voters often punish incumbent parties for poor economic performance; whether they treat left and right governments differently is less clear. The literature hosts multiple disconnected and often contradictory theories of partisan accountability. We leverage both observational and survey experiment data to establish an empirical regularity: voters, on average, punish left-of-center incumbents more severely for economic downturns than their counterparts on the right. A luxury-goods model of voting best explains this regularity. When times get tough, voters prioritize social spending for basic economic security over spending on socially desirable but less necessary "luxury goods" policies (e.g., environmental protection). Parties associated with luxury goods policies, mostly left parties, are shunned in downturns. Thus, many incumbent parties of the left face double jeopardy: voters punish all incumbents for a weak economy; they punish many left incumbents additionally for their policies.
The Europe Center October 2014 Newsletter
The Europe Center Graduate Student Grant Competition
Call for Proposals:
The Europe Center is pleased to announce the Fall 2014 Graduate Student Grant Competition for graduate and professional students at Stanford whose research or work focuses on Europe. Funds are available for Ph.D. candidates from across a wide range of disciplines in the humanities and social sciences to prepare for dissertation research and to conduct research on approved dissertation projects. The Europe Center also supports early graduate students who wish to determine the feasibility of a dissertation topic or acquire training relevant for that topic. Moreover, funds are available for professional students whose interests focus on some aspect of European politics, economics, history, or culture; the latter may be used to support an internship or a research project. Grants range from $500 to $5000.
Additional information about the grants, as well as the online application form, can be found here. The deadline for this Fall’s competition is Friday, October 17th. Recipients will be notified by November 7th. A second competition is scheduled for Spring 2015.
Highlights from 2013-2014:
In the 2013-2014 academic year, the Center awarded grants to 26 graduate students in departments ranging from Linguistics to Political Science to Anthropology. We would like to introduce you to some of the students that we support and the projects on which they are working. Our featured students this month are Michela Giorcelli (Economics) and Orysia Kulick (History).
Giorc
Undergraduate Internship Program: Highlights
The Europe Center sponsored four undergraduate student internships with leading think tanks and international organizations in Europe in Summer 2014. Laura Conigliaro (International Relations, 2015) joined the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), while Elsa Brown (Political Science, 2015), Noah Garcia (BA International Relations and MA Public Policy, 2015), and Jana Persky (Public Policy, 2016) joined Bruegel, a leading European think tank. Our featured student this month is Laura Conigliaro.
Recap: Panel on Europe-Russia Relations and EU expansion
On September 30, 2014, Miroslav Lajčák, the Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister of Foreign and European Affairs of the Slovak Republic, participated in a panel discussion in which he shared his thoughts and opinions about Europe’s relationship with Russia, and about the E.U.’s management of its future membership and associations. The Minister’s viewpoints were of particular interest, given his role in the E.U. foreign policy establishment, and the Slovak Republic’s role in the E.U. and NATO.
“The fact is that E.U.-Russia relations have worsened dramatically. That cannot be denied. But it’s not E.U. enlargement that played a major role in this.” According to the Minister, Russia did not view E.U. enlargement with hostility, in part, because enlargement remained a transparent process. “But it all changed when Europe decided to enter into Russia’s immediate neighborhood...the former Soviet Republics. And this was something that
Minister Lajčák’s brought a variety of experiences to the panel. He served as the European Union Chief Negotiator for the E.U.-Ukraine and E.U.-Moldova Association Agreements, and was the European Union Special Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Sarajevo. Additionally, he was previously the Ambassador of the Slovak Republic to the Former Republic of Yugoslavia, Albania and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.
After Minister Lajčák spoke, he was followed by comments by Michael McFaul, Professor of Political Science and Senior Fellow, Hoover Institute and Freeman Spogli Institute; Norman Naimark, the Robert and Florence McDonnell Professor in East European Studies in the History Department and The Director of Stanford Global Studies; and Kathryn Stoner, Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute and Faculty Director of the Susan Ford Dorsey Program in International Studies.
Introducing “Immigration and Integration in Europe” Policy Lab
The Europe Center would like to introduce a new research project entitled, “Immigration and Integration in Europe: A Public Policy Perspective,” led by Professors David Laitin and Jens Hainmueller. Duncan Lawrence has recently joined Stanford University to help direct the project. The project is part of the new Policy Implementation Lab at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.
The social and economic integration of its diverse and ever growing immigrant populations is one of the most fundamental and pressing policy issues European countries face today. Success or failure in integrating immigrants is likely to have a substantial effect on the ability of European countries individually and collectively as members of the European Union to achieve objectives ranging from the profound such as sustaining a robust democratic culture to the necessary such as fostering economic cooperation between countries. Various policies have been devised to address this grave political dilemma, but despite heated public debates we know very little about whether these policies achieve their stated goals and actually foster the integration of immigrants into the host societies. (Inset: David Laitin)
The goal of this research program is to fill this gap and create a network of leading immigration scholars in the US and Europe to generate rigorous evidence about what works and what does not when it comes to integration policies. The methodological core of the lab’s research program is a focus on systematic impact evaluations that leverage experimental and quasi-experimental methods with common study protocols to quantify the social and economic returns to integration policies across Europe, including polices for public housing, education, citizenship acquisition, and integration contracts for newcomers. This work will add to the quality of informed public debate on a sensitive issue, and create cumulative knowledge about policies that will be broadly relevant. (Inset: Jens Hainmueller)
The Europe Center Sponsored Events
We invite you to attend the following events sponsored or co-sponsored by The Europe Center:
Additional Details on our website
October 8-10, 2014
“War, Revolution and Freedom: the Baltic Countries in the 20th Century”
Stauffer Auditorium, Hoover Institution
9:00 AM onward
Save the Date
April 24-25, 2015
Conference on Human Rights
A collaborative effort between the International Human Rights and Conflict Resolution Clinic at Stanford Law School (IHRCRC), the Research Center for Human Rights at Vienna University (RCHR), and The Europe Center. The conference will focus on the pedagogy and practice of human rights.
Save the Date
May 20-22, 2015
TEC Lectureship on Europe and the World
Joel Mokyr
Robert H. Strotz Professor of Arts and Sciences, and Professor of Economics and History, Northwestern University
We welcome you to visit our website for additional details.
Stanford economics Professor Emeritus Ronald McKinnon dies
Ronald I. McKinnon, a renowned scholar of international economics, has died. A primary focus of McKinnon’s work was on East Asia, including the currency crisis of 1997-98 and Japan’s liquidity trap. The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center remembers him with gratitude for his collaboration on research activities and participation in many public seminars. An article written by the Stanford News Service recognizes his contributions to the Stanford community and beyond.
McKinnon was born in Edmonton, Canada, on July 10, 1935. He joined the Stanford economics faculty in 1961 as an assistant professor. He received tenure in 1966, was promoted to full professor in 1969 and eventually became a chaired professor. He earned his bachelor's degree in economics from the University of Alberta in 1956 and his doctorate in economics from the University of Minnesota in 1961.
McKinnon was an applied economist whose primary interests were international economics and economic development. Understanding financial institutions and monetary institutions was central to his teaching and research. A prolific writer, he wrote or co-authored nine books and penned numerous articles and commentary pieces for economic journals and publications such as The Economist, the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal.
'Intellectual giant'
"SIEPR and the entire Stanford economics community lost a dear friend and an intellectual giant. We were lucky to have shared him for 53 years," said John Shoven, the director of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
Shoven said McKinnon combined wit and wisdom. "He was both an intellectual powerhouse and a fun-loving colleague with a twinkle in his eye while he told a joke or two, or argued for his favorite unconventional theory."
McKinnon's wife, Margaret, said that her husband had a "second wind" of academic inquisitiveness that made his retirement years very active. "He did a lot of work on Asia and China, and was engaged with a whole new generation of economists and organizations."
She added that McKinnon loved economics. "He was a family man, but if something came up in economics, we knew where he would turn. His granddaughters remember him for his devotion to them and for his infectious passion for his work."
Financial repression
Along with his Stanford colleague the late Edward S. Shaw, McKinnon was among the first scholars to investigate "financial repression" as a substantial barrier to successful economic development. Financial repression refers to policies that force savers to accept returns below the rate of inflation and that enable banks to provide cheap loans to companies and governments to reduce the burden of their debt repayments.
His first book, published in 1973, Money and Capital in Economic Development, analyzed why the prevailing economic doctrines of the time had become too tolerant of inflation and of state interventions in the credit mechanism. McKinnon noted that without proper constraints, politicians were only too tempted to direct the flow of credit to suit their own ends.
He suggested strategies to escape financial repression in his 1993 book, The Order of Economic Liberalization: Financial Control in the Transition to a Market Economy. In it, he outlined how to liberalize government policies in domestic finance and foreign trade as a way to create more open markets.
McKinnon's other major area of interest was the study of international money and finance. He probed how the use of national currencies allows international trade to be effectively monetized and multilateral rather than bartered and bilateral.
Those rules of the game, McKinnon noted, can only be understood by considering the historical perspective – from the late 19th-century gold standard, the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1945 and the postwar dollar standard.
In Money in International Exchange: The Convertible Currency System (1979), McKinnon analyzed why and how the dollar came to be used as an international vehicle and reserve currency among banks and the primary currency of invoice in international commodity trade.
In his 1996 book, The Rules of the Game: International Money and Exchange Rates, McKinnon discoursed on macroeconomics and how the dollar standard could have been modified to make the world economy more stable in the postwar era.
East Asia, China and students
In his later years, McKinnon focused on East Asia and the great currency crisis of 1997-98 in that region, as well as Japan's liquidity trap. With Kenichi Ohno, McKinnon wrote Dollar and Yen: Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Japan (1997).
"His work had a following all over the world," said Shoven. "This was brought home to me in 1979 when I was visiting the London School of Economics and Ron McKinnon came to give a seminar. The faculty and students were so anxious to hear Ron that the seminar room was standing room only."
McKinnon was deeply engaged with his students – both graduate and undergraduate – many of who went on to write doctoral dissertations or senior undergraduate honors theses under his mentorship.
Throughout his career, McKinnon traveled internationally to conferences and for consulting with central banks and monetary authorities in Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe. He worked with international agencies such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, among others.
He is survived by his wife, Margaret Learmonth McKinnon, and three children – Neil Charles McKinnon of San Francisco; Mary Elizabeth McKinnon Villeneuve of Redlands, California; and David Bruce McKinnon, of Ottawa, Canada; and seven grandchildren. Plans for a memorial service have not yet been announced.
Clifton Parker is a writer for the Stanford News Service.
The Politics of Polarization: Taiwan in Comparative Perspective
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Over the past year and more, Taiwan’s political elite has been deadlocked over the question of deepening economic relations with the People’s Republic of China. This controversial issue has led to a standoff between the executive and legislative branches, sparked a frenzy of social activism and a student occupation of the legislature, and contributed to President Ma Ying-jeou’s deep unpopularity.
On October 17-18, the Taiwan Democracy Project at CDDRL, with the generous support of the Taipei Economic and Culture Office, will host its annual conference at Stanford University to examine the politics of polarization in Taiwan.
This conference will bring together specialists from Taiwan, the U.S., and elsewhere in Asia to examine the sources and implications of this political polarization in comparative perspective. It will include a special case study of the Trade in Services Agreement with China that triggered this past year’s protests, as well as a more general overview of the politics of trade liberalization in Taiwan, prospects for Taiwan’s integration into the Trans-Pacific Partnership and other regional trade agreements, and a consideration of the implications for Taiwan’s long-term democratic future.
Conference speakers will include: Chung-shu Wu, the president of the Chung-hwa Institute of Economic Research (CIER) in Taipei; Steve Chan of the University of Colorado; Roselyn Hsueh of Temple University; Yun-han Chu, the president of the Chiang Ching-kuo Foundation; and Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.
Panels will examine the following questions:
1. What are the sources and implications of political polarization in Taiwan, and how have these changed in recent years?
2. How does Taiwan’s recent experience compare to political polarization in other countries in Asia (e.g. South Korea, Thailand) and elsewhere (the US)?
3. To what extent does the latest political deadlock in Taiwan reflect concern over the specific issue of trade with the People’s Republic of China, versus a deeper, systemic set of problems with Taiwan’s democracy?
4. How are globalization and trade liberalization reshaping Taiwan’s domestic political economy, and what are the prospects for forging a stronger pro-trade coalition in Taiwan that transcends the current partisan divide?
The conference will take place October 17-18 in the Bechtel Conference Room in Encina Hall at Stanford University. It is free and open to the public.
Conference Resources
Conference Papers
How Cross-Strait Trade and Investment Is Affecting Income and Wealth Inequality in Taiwan by Chien-Fu Lin, National Taiwan University
Generational Differences in Attitudes towards Cross-Straits Trade by Ping-Yin Kuan, Department of Sociology & International Program in Asia-Pacific Studies, National Chengchi University
Change and the Unchanged of Polarized Politics in Taiwan by Min-Hua Huang, National Taiwan University; Center for East Asia Policy Studies, The Brookings Institution
Social Media, Social Movements and the Challenge of Democratic Governability by Boyu Chen, National Sun Yat-sen University, Institute of Political Science
Coping with the Challenge of Democratic Governance under Ma Ying-jeou by Yun-han Chu, National Taiwan University
Taiwan’s Bid for TPP Membership and the Potential Impact on Taiwan-U.S. Relations by Kwei-Bo Huang, National Chengchi University, Department of Diplomacy
In the Wake of the Sunflower Movement: Exploring the Political Consequences of Cross-Strait Integration by Pei-shan Lee, National Chung Cheng University, Political Science Department
The Roots of Thailand’s Political Polarization in Comparative Perspective by Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Chulalongkorn University; The Institute of Security and International Studies
The Role of the United States in Cross-Strait Economic Integration by Chen-Dong Tso, National Taiwan University
The China Factor and the Generational Shift over National Identity by Mark Weatherall, Taiwan Foundation for Democracy
Taiwan’s Strategy for Regional Economic Integration by Chung-Shu Wu, Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research
Polarized Electorates in South Korea and Taiwan: The Role of Political Trust under Conservative Governments by Hyunji Lee, Institute of Asian Research, University of British Columbia
Polarization in Taiwan Politics by Steve Chan, University of Colorado, Boulder
A tight race for the Scottish independence vote
Scottish voters go to the polls this Thursday to determine whether to remain part of the United Kingdom, or to become an independent Scotland. The latest polls show a neck and neck race, a development that would not have been believable just months ago when the "No" campaign held a dominant lead.
Christophe Crombez, Belgian-American economist and consulting professor at Stanford's Europe Center in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford Global Studies Division, discussed the pros and cons of Scottish independence on KQED Radio's "Forum with Michael Krasney" (Mon, Sep 15, 2014). Joining him were Adam Ramsay, a senior campaigner for "Yes Scotland", co-editor of Open Democracy and author of 42 Reasons to Support Scottish Independence, and Geoff Dyer, Financial Times' US diplomatic correspondent.
Visit KQED Radio's Forum web article "Will Scotland Vote for Independence?" to download a recording of this interview.
Anti-Semitism surge in Europe reflects loss of values, historical awareness, says Stanford scholar
Appeared in Stanford Report, August 29, 2014
A worrying spike in anti-Semitism in Europe is a stark reminder that prejudice against Jewish people is still a reality there today, say Stanford scholars. Anti-capitalism has been a particular source of anti-Semitism, according to Professor Russell Berman.
European leaders need to speak out more strongly against the escalation of anti-Semitism, a Stanford professor says.
"They should be willing to enforce the law," said Russell Berman, a Stanford professor of German studies and of comparative literature who is affiliated with the Europe Center on campus.
In recent weeks, slogans invoking anti-Semitism have been heard during European protests against the Palestinian deaths in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. In France and Germany, synagogues and Jewish community centers have been firebombed. In Britain, a rabbi was attacked near a Jewish boarding school.
"Protesters who storm synagogues should be arrested and prosecuted. Too often police have shown a blind eye when political protests have transformed into anti-Semitic mob actions," said Berman, the Walter A. Haas Professor in the Humanities and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.
He said that European societies in the long run have to find a way to grapple with their failed immigration policies and achieve more effective integration, he said. This includes more efficiently integrating immigrants into the cultural expectations of their new societies.
"Post–World War II Europe had as a core value a rejection of the anti-Semitism that led to the Holocaust. Europeans have to develop a pedagogy that can pass that value on to the new members of their communities," said Berman.
Roots of hatred
The recent eruption of anti-Semitism in Europe has multiple causes, according to Berman. The continent's lagging economy, the influx of immigrants from Muslim countries and the ongoing Israeli and Palestinian conflict are large factors.
And as last year's European parliament elections revealed, right-wing extremism has grown across Europe, he said.
"The far right is historically a home of anti-Semitism wrapped in nationalism and xenophobia. Some of this development can be attributed to the ongoing economic crisis, but some is certainly also a reaction against what is sometimes called the 'democracy deficit' in the European Union," Berman said.
Some Europeans believe their national political life has been subordinated to a "transnational bureaucracy" in the form of the European Union, Berman said. He added that this breeds resentment, and one expression of that is anti-Semitism, which is coinciding with traditional European nationalism.
Berman added, "Clearly this does not apply to all Muslims in Europe, but it has become an unmistakable feature in those population cohorts susceptible to radicalization as a response to a sense of social marginalization."
In Europe, immigrant populations are often clustered in de facto segregated neighborhoods, forming a parallel society, Berman said.
"While policies of multiculturalism have in the United States often contributed to productive integration, in Europe they have worked differently and undermined social cohesion. In that context, anti-Semitism has festered," he said.
Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have also fanned the flames of European anti-Semitism, Berman said. Meanwhile, protests did not arise in Europe when Muslims and Christians were massacred in recent months in Syria and Iraq.
"A year ago, one could still make an at least conceptual distinction between anti-Zionism [criticism of Israel] and anti-Semitism [hatred of Jews]," he said.
The events in the past months in the streets of Europe have erased that distinction, Berman said.
"The politics of criticizing Israel have been fully taken over by anti-Semites, whether from the traditional European far right, the extremist left or parts of the immigrant communities," he said.
Anti-capitalism, economic downturns
When the European economy soured, leaving many young people unemployed at a time of surging globalism – all against a "residual" communist backdrop that still exists in parts of Europe – anti-Semitism was the result, according to Berman.
"That inherent anxiety and free-floating animosity in Europe turns into hostility to minorities," he said. "It can generate both anti-Jewish and anti-Muslim prejudices, but anti-capitalism is today, as it has been historically, a particular source of anti-Semitism."
Berman calls this left-wing anti-Semitism – the targeting Jews as the symbols of capitalism – which he says has a long history. "A socialist leader of the 19th century once called anti-Semitism 'the anti-capitalism of fools,' and that's part of what we still see today," Berman said.
Opportunity, education, the future
Amir Eshel, a professor of German studies and of comparative literature and affiliated faculty member of The Europe Center, said Europe needs to do a better job of integrating Muslim immigrants into their new societies. In particular, he said, more economic opportunities must be given to people from disenfranchised communities.
"Nothing is as important as giving people opportunities to make their lives better," said Eshel, the Edward Clark Crossett Professor in Humanistic Studies. He is also an affiliated faculty member at the Europe Center in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.
Eshel points to important roles for the media and educational systems to play in clamping down on anti-Semitism. There are programs in place – International Holocaust Remembrance Day, for example – to remind people about the evil inflicted on Jews in Europe more than 60 years ago.
"What has changed is that young people are less biographically connected to these crimes of the past," said Eshel.
"When this happens, as the Holocaust drifts further in time, a certain sensibility arises that one should not be bound by the lessons of the past," he said.
Anti-Semitism in Europe, he said, is the worst he's seen or known about since the end of World War II. He's especially worried about the large numbers of Muslims from Britain and France who have joined the jihadist movements in places like Syria and Iraq.
"It's not going to be easy to track them if they return," Eshel noted, "and it'll be a challenge for many years in Europe."
Fear among Jews
History Professor Norman Naimark said that some French Jews are leaving the country because of ongoing anti-Semitic violence.
"Germany has also experienced an ongoing problem on both the extreme left and right, but there the authorities and the Jewish community seem to have the situation under control," added Naimark, the Robert and Florence McDonnell Professor in Eastern European Studies.
Naimark, the director of the Stanford Global Studies Division and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, described European anti-Semitism as following an oscillating curve up and down, especially in times of Middle East crises.
"England seems particularly susceptible to these kinds of oscillations," he said.
Inclusion of women in Japan's labor market is vital, Hoshi says
On Sept. 3, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reshuffled his cabinet, bringing more than double the number of female ministers on board, in line with his pledge to revive the economy based in part on increased participation of women in business and politics.
Traditionally, Japan has provided tax and pension incentives for women to stay at home or work part-time; however, Mr. Abe seeks to change this and has laid out a plan in the “third arrow” of his administration’s economic policy.
Takeo Hoshi, an economist and director of the Japan Program at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, spoke with Deutsche Welle about the administration’s leadership shift and policy goals.
“Relying on women to work more is an excellent idea because the Japanese economy has underutilized women’s talents in the past,” he says.
The full article is available on Deutsche Welle online.
Stanford Global Studies holds economic seminar at SCPKU
Stanford Global Studies commemorated the 10th anniversary of its summer internship program with a dynamic and engaging seminar at the Stanford Center at Peking University focused on China's economy. Read more.