Economic Affairs
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Breakfast provided to those who RSVP to Yumi Onoyama at yumio@stanford.edu by Monday, May 17. 9:00am ?The Changes and the Challenges of the Venture Capital Industry: The United States and Japan? Hirohisa Takata, Development Bank of Japan 9:20am ?Cosmeceuticals Market in the United States? Shojiro Matsuoka, Kommy Corporation 9:40am ?The Past, Present, and Future of the High-Tech Industry? Kenji Tashiro, Kumamoto Prefectural Government 10:00am ?Progression of the Broadband Infrastructure and Promising Contents Business? Takehiro Fujiki, Tokyo Electric Power Company 10:20am ?The Silicon Valley Model and Its Success in Japan? Takashi Shimotori, Sumitomo Corporation 10:40am ?Legislation of the CRA in Japan? Teruhisa Kurita, Ministry of Finance (Advisor: Dan Okimoto)

Oksenberg Conference Room, Encina Hall

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Dr. Sáez's recent paper offers a new perspective on the relationship between ex ante barriers to entry and ex post second-generation reforms. Building upon theoretical insights from the literature on new entry, the paper will show why some types of barriers to entry exist in transitional economies. The paper will then show how market segmentation imposes structural barriers to entry will likely affect the level of political opposition that builds during the implementation of second generation reforms. In order to provide empirical support for this theoretical construct, the paper will specifically highlight the experience of financial services reform in India in order to develop an argument about the existing challenges and likely success of second-generation reforms that stemmed from initial barriers to entry.

Lawrence Sáez is a senior associate member at St. Antony's College, Oxford and he teaches international politics at the School of Oriental and Asian Studies in London. Prior to living in England, Dr. Sáez was an assistant research political scientist at the Institute of East Asian Studies and visiting scholar at the Center for South Asia Studies, University of California, Berkeley. He was also the associate editor for South Asia at Asian Survey. He holds a B.A. in political science from the University of California, Berkeley; an M.A.L.D. in international relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy; and a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Chicago.

His research is focused around comparative political economy and fiscal federalism in developing countries. He is currently working on trying to understand how globalization has affected subnational economic growth and the provision of public goods in emerging markets. He is the author of Banking Reform in India and China (Palgrave MacMillan 2004).

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Lawrence Sáez Visiting Fellow, Center for International Studies Speaker London School of Economics
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Devon Curtis is a Hamburg Fellow at CISAC and a doctoral candidate in the Department of International Relations at the London School of Economics. Before starting her Ph.D., Devon worked as a researcher in the Privy Council Office of the Government of Canada, and at the United Nations Staff College. She has worked for the UN in the African Great Lakes region, and has also served as a consultant to a number of non-governmental organizations, including the Overseas Development Institute. Devon holds an MA and a BA in Political Science and Economics from McGill University.

Devon will discuss her dissertation research, which asks why external actors promote power-sharing as a response to internal conflict, despite power-sharing's relatively poor record in bringing about self-sustaining peace. Her work focuses on the peace process in Burundi.

Readings attached. Limited copies available at Alice Chen's cubical, Encina Hall (C206-7).

Tea & Cookies will be served at 3:15.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room, East 207, Encina Hall

not in residence

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Hamburg Fellow

Devon Curtis was a 2003-2004 Hamburg Fellow at CISAC and a doctoral candidate in the Department of International Relations at the London School of Economics. Her dissertation looks at external actors and the promotion of power sharing agreements in ethnic conflict, focusing on the case of Burundi. Ms. Curtis also holds an MA and a BA in Political Science and Economics from McGill University. Previously, Ms. Curtis has lectured at the London School of Economics and has worked as a researcher at the Privy Council Office of the Government of Canada, the United Nations Staff College, the International Development Research Centre and the Forum of Federations. She has also served as a consultant to a number of non-governmental organizations, including the Overseas Development Institute.

Devon Curtis Fellow CISAC
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Taiwan is a world premier manufacturing center, with many products leading in world market share, such as IC foundry (72.8%), Mask ROM (81.8%), WLAN (91%), CD-R Disc (79%), DVD-R Disc (82%) and others. In recent years, it has also performed well in patent productivity and S&T infrastructure. Currently, the challenge for Taiwan is to enter a new stage for economic development - to transform from a manufacturing-based economy in an innovation-based economy. What is the current status and prospects of Taiwan's industry technology innovation system? How does it perform? What are the gaps? What lessons have been learned from Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs policies for public and private, university and industry networking?

As director general of the Department of Industrial Technology (DOIT) at the Ministry of Economic Affairs in Taiwan, Dr. Hwang is responsible for formulating industrial policy to upgrade technology levels in Taiwan. The DOIT works with research institutions, private companies and universities to implement Taiwan's annual Technology Development Program. Supported by a more than $5 billion annual budget, this program focuses on stimulating the development and transfer of knowledge-intensive technologies, upgrading R&D capabilities of research institutions, and promoting international scientific and technological cooperation across such key industries, as IT, biotech, materials, machinery, aerospace, communications and others. Since 1990, Dr. Hwang has led a distinguished career in government service in Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs. He received a PhD in Information Engineering and MS in Computer Engineering from National Chiao-Tung University and a BS in Electronics Engineering from Chung Yuan Christian University.

Philippines Conference Room, Encina Hall

Dr. Jung-Chiou Hwang Director General Department of Industrial Technology, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwan
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Mr. Siew began his civil service career at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1962. He was soon appointed vice consul at the ROC?s Consulate General in Kuala Lumpur and then appointed Consul. He held the position of consul for 3 years. Once home, he became a section chief in the East Asian & Pacific Affairs Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In 1972 he rose to department director-general. Trade negotiations and market promotion were two areas to which he was particularly dedicated. As member of the ruling Kuomintang (KMT), Mr. Siew was elected in July 1988 to the KMT Central Committee. In June 1990 a new premier was appointed and the cabinet was reshuffled. Mr. Siew was appointed Minister of Economic Affairs. In November 1992, he helped to secure formal observer status for the ROC in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (now the World Trade Organization.) In August 1997, soon after the National Assembly had completed a revision of the Constitution, the government reorganized the cabinet. President Lee Teng-hui appointed Mr. Siew premier. He took office in September of that year and held the position until May 2000. Mr. Siew has since retired from government office and spends his time as an ordinary citizen devoting his efforts to education and social welfare.

Vidilakis Dining Room, Schwab Residential Center, 680 Serra Street, Stanford University Campus

His Excellency Vincent Siew Former Premier of Taiwan (1997-2000)
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From techie to truck driver in Silicon Valley. From tea broker to techie in Bangalore. The wave of jobs heading offshore causes wrenching loss--and produces enticing gains. Rafiq Dossani comments.

In Silicon Valley 200,000 workers have lost their jobs since 2001, albeit only 6,000 of those jobs headed overseas, Stanford University researcher Rafiq Dossani estimates. But that number will grow, he says, as the offshoring pace accelerates for jobs in software programming and product development. Already 150,000 engineers hack away in Bangalore--20,000 more than in Silicon Valley, the Times of India reports. Cisco used only a few Infosys workers in Bangalore six years ago; now it uses almost 300 contract staff, plus 550 full-fledged employees in its own Bangalore office. In two years PeopleSoft's Bangalore offshore force has grown to 200 freelancers and 350 full-timers.

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In one and a half days of academic workshops, scholars from multiple disciplines and across the country and Europe discussed the issue of information incompleteness, and the role in this of the media, and possible media bias. Corporate performance and the media were also discussed.

Ulrike Malmendier of Stanford and a collaborator presented results indicating that media attention on CEOs may be detrimental to the CEOs' future performance. And Lisa George of Hunter College attempted to demonstrate a significant liberal bias in a study comparing the leanings of The New York Times, USA Today, Fox News and others, with the average member of Congress.

Other presentations focused on how media coverage might influence asset prices. Luigi Zingales of the University of Chicago, for instance, attempted to demonstrate that stock prices are most reactive to the category of earnings emphasized by the press. Finally, Andrea Prat of the London School of Economics and David Stromberg of Stockholm University focused on the breakup of government-controlled media and the impact on politics. They examined voter turnout when people have more media outlets to chose among. They attempted to show that Swedish viewers who switched to commercial television become more active voters, and better informed.

The topic of the second-day panels was the corporate scandals that have shaken Wall Street, and the economic crises and bubbles that have troubled international financial markets. The main question examined was the degree to which the media was culpable in hyping or failing adequately to report in the lead-up to these events, or whether as a whole it handled them well. Other questions were whether the media is capable of reducing market failures, increasing accountability and improving transparency, and the degree to which people ought to rely on the media to play these roles.

Among other speakers were Andrei Shleifer of Harvard University, Sendhil Mulainathan of MIT and James Hamilton of Duke University. The journalists included the authors of two books on the Enron scandal: The Wall Street Journal's John Emshwiller, co-author of 24 Days, and Fortune magazine's Bethany McLean, co-author of The Smartest Guys in the Room. Also discussing corporate scandals was the Financial Times' Richard Waters. Discussing Russia and economic crises was Fortune magazine's Bill Powell and the Economist magazine's Edward Lucas.

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The honeymoon between China and the U.S. tech industry is over, and the warm feelings may be gone for a while. APARC's Lawrence J. Lau comments.

History shows that these sorts of trade problems can last a long time. In the '80s, Japanese and U.S. semiconductor manufacturers sparred constantly. A truce only began in the '90s when Japan was already mired in an economic slide. Moreover, such trade quarrels can lead to global incompatibilities that linger for years and hurt both importers and exporters. "I believe there are genuine security concerns on China's part, although the domestic industry is also likely to benefit," said Lawrence Lau, the Kwoh-Ting Li professor of economic development at Stanford University. "This happens quite often. Our cell phones do not work in Japan, so the Japanese manufacturers and distributors have a lock in their home market. However, that did not exactly help Japan. By setting a different standard, Japan has actually limited the growth of its own cell phone companies."

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ECONOMIC, POLITICAL TIES DISPLACING RIVALRY China's government has sentenced two of its citizens to life in prison for their role in securing prostitutes for hundreds of male Japanese visitors in the southern city of Zhuhai last autumn. The Chinese government is also pressuring Tokyo to turn over the Japanese businessmen who allegedly requested the prostitutes. This story made headlines around the world, and fits well with how the world press typically covers Sino-Japanese relations. Regrettably, such incidents recur with enough regularity to feed the media machine that continues to stir a nationalism rooted in conflicting historical memories. Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's annual visits to the Yasukuni Shrine -- which is widely viewed as a symbol of Japan's former militarism -- is a conspicuous example of this. The publicity that the press gives to these visits has helped impede an invitation to Koizumi from China's leaders for a state visit. Recently, the discovery of mustard gas canisters left behind by Japanese forces during World War II has also served to keep memories of the Imperial Japanese Army's wartime conduct alive among older Chinese. Moreover, rival Sino-Japanese claims to the Senkaku (or Diao Yutai) Islands resurfaced last year when the Japanese government leased three islets in the chain from private parties. The action, purportedly undertaken to reduce the prospect of landings and demonstrations by Japanese right-wingers, set off a brief, though frenzied, reaction in China, as well as in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Meanwhile, differences over Taiwan also foster tensions periodically, such as when former Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui sought to visit Japan for medical treatment. But this is not the whole story. Although such incidents reveal a troubling level of mistrust between the Chinese and Japanese that is not merely a product of media coverage, it is noteworthy that both governments have worked consistently, diligently, and with considerable success to resolve such problems and contain their political fallout. Of course, official relations between the two countries are marked by much political and economic competition -- some of it healthy, some of it a possible harbinger of future strategic rivalry. The competitive strain in Sino-Japanese relations is especially visible in energy politics. Demand for oil in Asia is growing rapidly, and with China and Japan increasingly dependent upon imports, each has naturally sought to improve its energy security by diversifying sources of supply. Both countries covet access to Russian reserves, especially those located in the Angarsk fields of Siberia. Last spring, China appeared to have locked up a Russian commitment to build a pipeline to service the China market at Daqing. Japan, however, raised the ante with new offers of financial incentives. Its bid for an alternative pipeline to Nakhodka to serve Japanese, Korean and other markets remains alive, creating another point of competitive friction. In their rivalry for leadership in promoting Asian regional cooperation, meanwhile, China has taken an early lead. Nearly two years ago, China trumped Japan by offering a Free Trade Agreement to the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, while front-loading its own tariff concessions. But this backdrop of contention and competition masks emerging collaborative aspects of Sino-Japanese relations that are profoundly important. For example, trade and investment flows continue to expand rapidly. Bilateral trade topped $100 billion in 2003, as Japan's exports to China increased by more than 10 percent, fueled by semiconductors, electrical equipment and automobiles. Meanwhile, China replaced the United States as Japan's biggest source of imports, and is now one of the few non-members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries with which Japan runs a trade deficit. Similarly, direct investment by Japanese firms is increasing as they relocate production facilities to China to capitalize on lower labor costs and high-quality engineering talent. Of course, there is no assurance that today's expanded commerce will preclude eventual strategic rivalry, or succeed in erasing lingering wartime animosity. But both countries now place a premium on extending their economic interdependence. Ultimately, the historical wounds that have long divided China and Japan, and the more current diplomatic flash points that the global media inevitably trumpet, tell only part of the Sino-Japanese story. There are economic and geopolitical rivalries between China and Japan that dwarf in importance the high-profile insults to national pride that make headlines. But there are also compelling economic and political inducements toward cooperation that prevent these rivalries from developing into full-blown crises. MICHAEL ARMACOST is a former U.S. ambassador to Japan and is a distinguished fellow at the Asia/Pacific Research Center of Stanford University. He wrote this article for Project Syndicate.

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(Abstract from paper) Sociological theorizing and research on the relationship between inequality and corruption is surprisingly rare given the discipline’s long-standing focus on the correlations of inequality with democracy and development, as well as research that demonstrates the associations between corruption, democracy and development.  We propose that greater income inequality increases corruption and find that its explanatory power is significant relative to conventionally accepted correlates of corruption such as low levels of economic development and democracy.  We argue that the rich will employ corruption as one means to preserve and advance their own status, privileges and interests while the poor will be vulnerable to extortion at higher levels of inequality.

While countries with authoritarian regimes are likely to have greater levels of corruption on average, higher levels of inequality increase the likelihood of corruption in countries with democratic regimes because the wealthy cannot employ oppression to advance their interests in these political systems.  Contrary to conventional wisdom, smaller and not larger government is associated with higher levels of corruption because higher inequality through corruption is associated with both lower tax rates as well as lower government transfers and subsidies. We also corroborate the finding that the negative effect of inequality on economic growth can be explained at least in part by its impact on corruption. 

Encina Ground Floor Conference Room

Sanjeev Khagram Visiting Scholar CDDRL
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