This is part of the Stanford seminar series on Science, Technology, and Society.

Abstract
How do transformative new technologies arise, and how does innovation really work? Conventional thinking ascribes the invention of technologies to “thinking outside the box,” or vaguely to genius or creativity, but Arthur shows that such explanations are inadequate. Rather, technologies are put together from pieces  themselves technologies  that already exist. Technologies therefore share common ancestries, and combine, morph, and combine again, to create further technologies. Technology evolves much as a coral reef builds itself from activities of small organisms  it creates itself from itself; and all technologies are descended from earlier technologies.

W. Brian Arthur is an External Faculty Member at the Santa Fe Institute, IBM Faculty Fellow, and Visiting Researcher in the Intelligent Systems Lab at PARC (formerly Xerox Parc). From 1983 to 1996 he was Morrison Professor of Economics and Population Studies at Stanford University. He holds a Ph.D. from Berkeley in Operations Research, and has other degrees in economics, engineering and mathematics.

Arthur pioneered the modern study of positive feedbacks or increasing returns in the economy--in particular their role in magnifying small, random events in the economy. This work has gone on to become the basis of our understanding of the high-tech economy. He has recently published a new book: The Nature of Technology: What it Is and How it Evolves, "an elegant and powerful theory of technology's origins and evolution."He is also one of the pioneers of the science of complexity.

Arthur was the first director of the Economics Program at the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico, and has served on SFI's Science Board and Board of Trustees. He is the recipient of the Schumpeter Prize in economics, the Lagrange Prize in complexity science, and two honorary doctorates.

Arthur is a frequent keynote speaker on such topics as: How exactly does innovation work and how can it be fostered? What is happening in the economy, and how should we rethink economics? How is the digital revolution playing out in the economy? How will US and European national competitiveness fare, given the rise of China and India?

Lynn Eden is Associate Director for Research at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University. Eden received her Ph.D. in sociology from the University of Michigan, held several pre- and post-doctoral fellowships, and taught in the history department at Carnegie Mellon before coming to Stanford. In the area of international security, Eden has focused on U.S. foreign and military policy, arms control, the social construction of science and technology, and organizational issues regarding nuclear policy and homeland security. She co-edited, with Steven E. Miller, Nuclear Arguments: Understanding the Strategic Nuclear Arms and Arms Control Debates (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1989). She was an editor of The Oxford Companion to American Military History (New York: Oxford University Press, 2000), which takes a social and cultural perspective on war and peace in U.S. history. That volume was chosen as a Main Selection of the History Book Club.

Eden's book Whole World on Fire: Organizations, Knowledge, and Nuclear Weapons Devastation(Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2004; New Delhi: Manas Publications, 2004) explores how and why the U.S. government--from World War II to the present--has greatly underestimated the damage caused by nuclear weapons by failing to predict damage from firestorms. It shows how well-funded and highly professional organizations, by focusing on what they do well and systematically excluding what they don't, may build a poor representation of the world--a self-reinforcing fallacy that can have serious consequences, from the sinking of the Titanic to not predicting the vulnerability of the World Trade Center to burning jet fuel. Whole World on Fire won the American Sociological Association's 2004 Robert K. Merton Award for best book in science, knowledge, and technology.

Co-sponsored by STS, CISAC, and WTO.

Arthur's new book, The Nature of Technology, will be available for purchase.

Please bring lunch; drinks and light refreshments will be provided.

In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

Buddhaditta Bose, "Spanning the Chain and Capturing Value in the Clinical Research Outsourcing (CRO) Industry"

The clinical research outsourcing (CRO) industry is a multi-billion dollar industry that has grown over time and is dominated by a few global top CROs. There is no significant Indian player in the market because the global top CROs have strategically chosen to be at the higher end of the value chain. It is therefore imperative that an Indian CRO, like Reliance Life Sciences (RLS), focus its strategy on spanning the chain and providing higher value add to capture the attention of the clients and successfully compete in the marketplace thereby becoming a leading player in the market.

Bose's research looks at the industry value chain and the relative positioning of the case in point - RLS with respect to the value chain and provides recommendations on how RLS can climb up the value chain. His research also highlights the macro view of the industry in context of the basic theme of the research mentioned above.

Girish Masand, "Advanced Tools for Complete Characterization of Biopharmaceutical Products"

Characterization of biopharmaceuticals plays a key role in the identification, structural elucidation and quantitation of chemical constituents or chemical impurities in current protein based therapeutics. For a biopharmaceutical protein to be well characterized, it is essential to be able to define the natural molecular heterogeneity, impurity profile, and potency of that product with a high degree of confidence. Given the continuing development of new technologies in this field, and the complex nature of biopharmaceutical drugs, the recent guidance documents have been drafted to include more stringent and detailed analytical data requirements for product registration. In order to move faster through the regulatory framework and obtain product approval, it is important for any biopharmaceutical company to keep abreast of the current and emerging trend in analytical technologies.

Masand's research provides an assessment of current practices at Reliance Life Sciences and newer trends in analytical characterization of biopharmaceuticals, which will help Reliance Life Sciences to broaden its current perspective of product characterization, sequentially helping to launch its pipeline products at a faster pace.

Masatsugu Mitsuyama, "Strategy of Cable TV Companies - To Get Through the Competitive Environment, What Will Cable TV Companies Do?

In 1948, cable television (CATV) originated in the United States with the purpose of enhancing poor reception of local over-the-air television signals. Since its origin, the CATV industry has grown steadily, expanding its service line-ups and advancing its service features. However, in last two decades, the environment surrounding the CATV industry changed. Competitors such as DirecTV, Dish Network, Verizon and AT&T entered into multi-channel video service. With advanced service features and attractive pricing, these competitors promote existing CATV customers to switch providers and the CATV industry continued to decrease the number of video customers in the last 8 years. Mitsuyama analyzes the CATV industry's approach to get through this competitive environment. Service advancement seems to be a key factor for CATV companies to differentiate themselves. He makes argument especially on "advanced interactive services", on which the CATV industry is focusing its efforts.

Masahito Sugita, "Creation of New Business in Japan and U.S. - Consideration in the Trend Toward a Cloud Computing World"

"Cloud Computing" is a new concept in the structure of computing systems, and is spreading gradually into our lives and businesses. The big shift from the present computing style to the cloud computing style, especially in the fields of enterprise IT systems, is predicted to occur within the next 3 to 5 years. This will fundamentally change information and communication technology (ICT) business models around the world.

Sugita analyzes the impacts of cloud computing on the ICT businesses and the structure of industry, and investigates new strategies suitable for the changing business environments from the point of view of creating new business in Japan and the U.S.

In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

Wataru Ishii, "Economic Development of Zhejiang Province"

Zhejiang Province is located in the southern part of the Yangtze River Delta on the southeast coast of China. Before the economic reform started in 1978 all over the country, Zhejiang Province's GDP and GDP per capita were about 15th among other provinces. Since then it has achieved enormous economic development and now ranks 4th in provincial GDP and GDP per capita, just after politically more autonomous metropolitans of Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin.

While succeeding in maintaining economic development for three decades since the economic reform began, Zhejiang Province is now facing many difficulties, such as unfavorable influence of the international financial crisis in 2008. From the start of economic reform local governments have played an important role in developing local economy. Can local governments help economy in the region keep thriving in future? If so, what kind of roles should they play?

Mitsue Kurihara, "Issues of Japanese VC Industry from the Perspective of Exit Activities"

Exit strategies of venture capitals (VCs) are one of the key factors in developing the VC industry in each country. Exit strategies in VCs are ways to transfer their owned stocks and to obtain high rate of returns. Exit strategies are one of the reasons for the Japanese VC industry being so small and low performing. However, Japanese VC exit conditions have not been completely clarified.

Kurihara will focus on the VC's exit strategies and markets to explain the characteristics and problems of the Japanese VC industry.

Boyoung Shin, "Rising Issues on Multi-Cultural Families in Korea"

Today, a portion of the Korean population consists of foreign residents - currently at 2.2% and growing at a very rapid rate. Korea is no longer a single-ethnic nation, one in which they claim as the purest country in the world. This long time existing sense of nationalism for Koreans has to now confront new challenges. The growing number of foreign residents proves that Korea is now in a remarkable turning point for vast transition in the form of a multi-cultural nation. Shin's research studies the issues of a multi-cultural family and it's significance in adequately coping with the consequences that will soon follow in Korean society.

Suguru Taguchi, "Human Computer Interaction - Focusing on the Input Interface"

Machines and computers have become increasingly convenient and sophisticated, yet, at the same time, more complicated. The interaction between human and computer has an important role in operating these complicated machines. Regarding input interface, there has been a boom in the natural user interface (NUI) that detects movement of the body, including the input interface of the touch screen system.

Taguchi analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of input interface, and argues whether NUI, which uses an intuitive operation, can be used as an input interface in a wide range of fields in the future.