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This paper investigates the critical role of private satellite constellations, particularly Starlink, in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. It delves into how these systems are employed for intelligence gathering, communications, and logistical support, emphasizing their strategic importance in modern warfare. The research contributes to the discourse on the militarization of space assets, providing a nuanced understanding of the intersections between technology, ethics, and warfare.

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Hayden Fite
Rebecca Wang
Mikhail Zinovyev
Sergey Clado
Luv Jawahrani
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As the third year of Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s war of aggression is now well underway, military victories and defeats in Ukraine’s counter-offensives have served as a primary lens through which Western audiences have understood Russia’s will to continue prosecuting its illegal war. As the Kremlin’s blatant power grab offended the consciences of millions the world over, a means for the West to compel an end to Putin’s war besides military intervention proved necessary. Within short order, various NATO-aligned states led largely by the United States and European Union unveiled one of the most comprehensive and draconian sanctions packages in history.

Much less visible than the progress of Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield has been the impact of halted trade on Russia’s fiscal-military state and military-industrial capabilities. Moreover, it remains to be seen if financial disincentives can persuade Putin and his inner circle to change course, or if the Russian Federation’s strongman leader is persuaded by sheer military force alone.

This Stanford-US-Russia Forum (SURF) memorandum seeks to investigate the efficacy of Western-led sanctions regimes against the Russian Federation. We begin our inquiry with an overview of sanctions implemented after the start of the full-scale invasion and how these complemented existing sanctions responding to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. We next consider the impacts of economic sanctions on various interests of Russian industries and citizens in and outside of Russia. This paper next turns to various tactical and strategic shortcomings of historic Western sanctions strategies. Lastly, we seek to provide policy recommendations outside of those already recommended by the McFaul-Yermak sanctions working group.

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William Pirone
Grant Thieroff
Anna Siamionava
Anna Ulyanova
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Nora Sulots
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The Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) is pleased to share that Ayça Alemdaroğlu, a research scholar and associate director of CDDRL’s Program on Turkey, has been appointed a Global Fellow at the Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO).

PRIO is a world-leading peace research organization that conducts research on the conditions for peaceful relations between states, groups, and people, seeking to understand the processes that bring societies together or split them apart. Researchers explore how conflicts erupt and how they can be resolved, investigate how different kinds of violence affect people, and examine how societies tackle crises and the threat of crises. They document general trends, seek to understand processes, and inform concrete responses.

PRIO Global Fellows are academics with strong scholarly records and a commitment to the research agenda on peace and conflict. They all have their main positions elsewhere but work closely with PRIO researchers and regularly spend time in Oslo. Following nomination by PRIO staff, fellowships are awarded to scholars from all over the world, of different seniority levels,, and with diverse methodological and analytical perspectives.

Ayça specializes in social and political change in the Middle East, focusing on Turkey's domestic politics and international relations. Her research examines the interplay between authoritarianism, youth politics, and public policy. Her scholarship extends into various other domains, including nationalism, eugenics, urban segregation, and the impacts of neoliberalism on education. She is the co-editor of Kurds in Dark Times: New Perspectives on Violence and Resistance (University of Syracuse Press, 2023). Prior to her current role at Stanford, she was an Assistant Professor of Research in Sociology at Northwestern University and served as a postdoctoral fellow and lecturer at Stanford. She earned her Ph.D. from the University of Cambridge and actively contributes to academic discussions through her editorial roles.

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Challenges and Opportunities in Turkey's 2023 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections

In this Q&A, Ayça Alemdaroğlu, Associate Director of the Program on Turkey at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, discusses the key issues and their implications for the country's future.
cover link Challenges and Opportunities in Turkey's 2023 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections
Turkish riot police block the main gate of Boğaziçi University during protests against President Erdogan’s appointment of a new rector. Istanbul, January 4, 2021.
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Boğaziçi Resists Authoritarian Control of the Academy in Turkey

Turkey woke up to 2021 with an uproar over a new authoritarian assault on its academic institutions.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping shakes hands with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan before their meeting on Sept. 3, 2016 in Hangzhou, China.
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Erdogan Is Turning Turkey Into a Chinese Client State

With few friends left in the West, Ankara is counting on Beijing for help.
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PRIO conducts research on the conditions for peaceful relations between states, groups, and people.

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CDDRL Honors Student, 2024-25
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Major: Political Science
Hometown: Sacramento, California
Thesis Advisor: Condoleezza Rice and Stephen Kotkin

Tentative Thesis Title: The Sahelian Coup Belt: Authoritarian Capture and Serial State Failure

Future aspirations post-Stanford: After my undergraduate studies, I hope to pursue a Master's degree in International relations with a concentration on theories of state failure, international policy, and great power competition. I also intend to complete a J.D. program with a focus on national security law. I ultimately hope to serve in the federal government within the diplomatic, defense, or intelligence agencies.

A fun fact about yourself: I type at 120 words per minute! 

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CDDRL Honors Student, 2024-25
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Major: International Relations
Minor: Human Rights & Arabic
Hometown:  San Diego, California
Thesis Advisor: Lisa Blaydes

Tentative Thesis Title: Historical Memory of the Lebanese Civil War in the City of Beirut

Future aspirations post-Stanford: I plan to take a year or two off to study or research abroad and then go to law school. I'm hoping to go into international/human rights law, potentially focusing on international tribunals, but we'll see! I'm interested in post-conflict studies, transitional justice, and migration.

A fun fact about yourself: I used to competitively Irish Dance.

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Lawyers represent a significant threat to the integrity of the U.S. sanctions regime. This report analyzes that threat in the context of Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine. Sanctions, particularly individual sanctions, are a central weapon in the United States’ national security arsenal. This report recommends that Congress, federal agencies, and state bar associations implement a comprehensive regulatory regime for lawyers engaging in certain transactional work to ensure U.S. lawyers are no longer enablers of sanctions evasion.

This report recommends amending the Banking Secrecy Act (BSA) to subject financial transactional work completed by lawyers to the same anti-money laundering and anti-sanctions evasion requirements to which banks are subject. Lawyers would be required to verify the true identity of their clients when completing financial transactions on their behalf and file reports with the government on suspicious client activity. This requirement would prevent oligarchs from gaming the U.S. anti-money laundering (AML) system by using lawyers instead of banks for these transactions. Congress must also fully fund the agencies that would implement this new law: the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), and the Department of Justice (DOJ). FinCEN must issue comprehensive rules clarifying lawyers’ obligations under the BSA, and OFAC must amend its regulations to plug a critical gap in the current sanctions implementation framework. Finally, state bar associations must require that lawyers be trained on their new obligations.

This report begins with a description of the problem: oligarchic wealth, how that wealth supports Putin’s regime, and how U.S. lawyers enable sanctions evasion (Part I). It then gives an overview of the current regulatory landscape (Part II). Next, it presents how six other countries regulate lawyers as potential enablers of sanctions evasion and other crimes, including money laundering (Part III). Finally, it proposes a comprehensive legislative and regulatory regime to solve the lawyers-as-enablers problem (Part IV).

About the Law and Policy Lab

Under the guidance of faculty advisers, Law and Policy Lab students counsel real-world clients in such areas as education, copyright and patent reform, governance and transparency in emerging economies, policing technologies, and energy and the environment. Policy labs address problems for real clients, using analytic approaches that supplement traditional legal analysis. The clients may be local, state, or federal public agencies or officials, or private non-profit entities such as NGOs and foundations. Typically, policy labs assist clients through empirical evidence that scopes a policy problem and assesses options and courses of action. The methods may include comparative case studies, population surveys, stakeholder interviews, experimental methods, program evaluation or big data science, and a mix of qualitative and quantitative analysis. Faculty and students may apply theoretical perspectives from cognitive and social psychology, decision theory, economics, organizational behavior, political science or other behavioral science disciplines.

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Stanford Law School Law and Policy Lab, 2023-24 Spring
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Erik Jensen
Kyrylo Korol
Sarah Manney
Katherine Viti
Lexi Curnin
Bryce Tuttle
Nathaniel Quigley
Tengqin (Max) Han
Garrett Walker
Frishta Quigley
Danny Sharp
Gabriel Bernardes
Moira Lieto
Gretchen Knaut
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Policy Practicum: Regulating Professional Enablers of Russia’s War on Ukraine (Law 809M)
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Montana Gray
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This article originally appeared in The Stanford Daily.

European Union (EU) High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell M.S. ’75 visited the Hoover Institution on Monday for an event hosted by the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI).

In a keynote speech followed by a conversation with the institute’s director and former ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, Borrell delved Europe’s crucial role and responsibilities in addressing ongoing war in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as geopolitical security and emerging technology more broadly.

Borrell emphasized the need for EU countries to collectively adapt to the changing geopolitical landscape and increase their strategic responsibility. He stressed the importance of European unity in the face of challenges posed by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and the ongoing Israel-Gaza war, noting that the security landscape has “dramatically changed.”

“Europe has to learn to speak the language of power,” Borrell said, emphasizing the need for Europe to increase its military capacities while utilizing all available tools to face global challenges.

Listen to Representative Borrell's full discussion with Michael McFaul below on a special episode of World Class podcast.

Follow the link for a transcript of "Strategic Responsibility in the EU, United States, and Beyond."

Regarding the Israel-Gaza war, Borrell called for a political process that would empower the Palestinian Authority and reach a solution for peace, describing the current state as “a stain on human consciousness.” He urged the international community to push for a ceasefire, secure the release of hostages, and ensure better access to humanitarian aid in the region.

“It is not a natural catastrophe what is happening in Gaza. It is not an earthquake, it is not a flood when you come and help people suffering the consequences. [It] is a manmade disaster, is a manmade catastrophe,” Borrell said.

Among the other global challenges Borrell called for Europe to address was the continent’s dependence on China for critical materials and technologies. He emphasized the importance of coordinating with the US to counter China’s growing influence in the global economic and political sphere.

“More coordination in front of China should be one of the most important things that the Europeans and the Americans should do in order to balance the challenges of this world,” Borrell said.

More broadly, Borrell spoke to the importance of coordination between the US and EU to work globally to protect “political freedom, economic prosperity, and social cohesion.”

Borrell acknowledged that the United States is a global leader in emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, and stressed the importance of cooperation on trade and technological innovation. He expressed concern that regulatory hurdles may be hindering the EU’s ability to catch up with the U.S. in the technology sector and emphasized the significance of transatlantic collaboration in shaping the future of technology.

“I am happy to know that we are partners in building a responsible and human-centric technological innovation,” Borrell said.

The importance of partnership across countries was a throughline in Borrell’s speech, as he concluded with a reminder of the interconnectedness of global security and social well-being. “You cannot be secure at home if your neighbor is not eating dinner.”



Watch High Representative Borrell's full keynote remarks below. Video courtesy of the European Commission.

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Dr. Salam Fayyad, former prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, in conversation with Larry Diamond, FSI's Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy, at an event hosted by CDDRL's Program on Arab Reform and Democracy.
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Salam Fayyad, former prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, spoke about the quest for peace and Palestinian statehood during a conversation on the Palestinian people, the Gaza War, and the conflict’s implications for stability in the Middle East, hosted by CDDRL’s Program on Arab Reform and Democracy.
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Michael McFaul listens to President Zuzana Čaputová speak during the Q&A portion of her fireside chat at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University.
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Slovak President Optimistic about Democracy, but Warns about Russian Misinformation

During a visit to the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Slovak President Zuzana Čaputová reminded the Stanford community that the stakes of the war in Ukraine are high and will impact democracies far beyond Eastern and Central Europe.
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Will Dobson, book cover of "Defending Democracy in an Age of Sharp Power," and Chris Walker
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How Can Democracies Defend Against the Sharp Power of Autocrats?

Christopher Walker, Vice President for Studies and Analysis at the National Endowment for Democracy, and Will Dobson, co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, discussed their new book, “Defending Democracy in an Age of Sharp Power” (Johns Hopkins University Press 2023).
cover link How Can Democracies Defend Against the Sharp Power of Autocrats?
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Borrell emphasized the need for EU countries to adapt to the changing geopolitical landscape and increase their strategic responsibility, whether in responding to Russian aggression in Ukraine, the crisis in Gaza, or competition with China.

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Sergiy Leshchenko, 2024: A Decisive Year in Russia's War in Ukraine

In 2022, Russia initiated an unprovoked attack on Ukraine, marking the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. Despite initial gains, Putin was unable to change the political landscape in Kyiv, and approximately half of the territories initially seized by Russian forces were later reclaimed by Ukraine. However, the war is far from over. The war has also tested American leadership, particularly as China and France have expanded their international influence. The upcoming U.S. presidential election further escalates the uncertainty, as continued American support for Ukraine is critical. A Ukrainian victory is pivotal not only for regional stability but also for the security of American citizens.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Sergiy Leshchenko is formerly a journalist with Ukrainska Pravda and a member of the Ukrainian Parliament (2014-2019). He first rose to political prominence during Ukraine’s 2014 Maidan Revolution and has continued to serve in government and civil society since. He is an advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief-of-staff and the initiator of the Working Group on Sanctions Against Russia, co-led by Michael McFaul. Mr. Leshchenko is an alumnus of the 2013 cohort of the Draper Hills Summer Fellows Program (now the Fisher Family Summer Fellows Program) at FSI’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University.

Kathryn Stoner
Kathryn Stoner

In-person: Philippines Conference Room (Encina Hall, 3rd floor, 616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford)
Online: Via Zoom

Sergiy Leshchenko Advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Chief of Staff
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Clifton B. Parker
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Salam Fayyad, a former prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, told a Stanford audience that a peaceful outcome of the Gaza War depends on a principled two-state solution that recognizes Palestinian rights at the outset.

Fayyad engaged in a conversation on April 29 with Larry Diamond and Hesham Sallam at an event hosted by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law’s (CDDRL) Program on Arab Reform and Democracy (ARD). Diamond is the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and director of the Program on Arab Reform and Democracy, and Sallam is a CDDRL senior research scholar and associate director for the program. 

The problem, Fayyad said, is that a two-state solution has never been defined with adequate precision. “Part of this is to be expected if something is going to be the product of negotiations,” as was not the case in prior years with proposals such as the Oslo Accords.

On Oct. 7, 2023, Palestinian militants led by Hamas attacked Israel, killing almost 1,200 people, and Israel responded by launching an invasion of Gaza that has killed more than 34,000 Palestinians as of April 2024. With the war ongoing for seven months now, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict goes back many decades to 1948, when Israel was established. The question now is, what does the future hold for Gaza, the Palestinian people, Israel, and stability in the Middle East?

Fayyad raised the issue of what the key organizing principle to determine a future State of Palestine and a peaceful solution with Israel could be.

He said, “That process must be preceded by formal recognition of our rights as a people, our national rights. It's very important. Oslo was not about that. Oslo was very transactional.”

‘Voices in these discussions’


Sallam, a moderator, said in an email prior to the event that “the ongoing war has caused a grave humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza with tens of thousands of deaths, a serious risk of famine, and a pressing public health crisis. It is important for us to advance as many conversations as possible about how we got to this reality and how we can find a peaceful exit out of it. And it is imperative to elevate and center Palestinian voices in these discussions.”

He added, “Dr. Fayyad’s visit to CDDRL’s Program on Arab Reform and Democracy promises to shed light on a host of pressing questions that the Stanford community has been grappling with since last year. It is a timely opportunity to learn, engage, and deliberate.”

It is important for us to advance as many conversations as possible about how we got to this reality and how we can find a peaceful exit out of it. And it is imperative to elevate and center Palestinian voices in these discussions.
Hesham Sallam
Associate Director, Program on Arab Reform and Democracy

Fayyad is an economist who served as minister of finance for the Palestinian Authority from 2002 to 2005 and as prime minister from 2007 to 2013. During his tenure, he introduced a number of economic and governance reforms. Afterward, he founded "Future for Palestine," a nonprofit development foundation. He also worked for the International Monetary Fund, including as the resident representative in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Currently, he is a Visiting Senior Scholar and Daniella Lipper Coules '95 Distinguished Visitor in Foreign Affairs at the Princeton School of Public Affairs. He is also a distinguished statesman at the Atlantic Council and a distinguished fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Recognition of Rights


Fayyad said that the recognition of Palestinian rights is critical to any future negotiations. “One of the key lessons learned is that it's a mistake to engage in a problematic process that is not defined well in terms of outcome – what it is supposed to lead to if it is not based particularly from our point of view, or on recognition of our national rights as a people? Because so far, we have gotten none of that.”

He added, “I, like many Palestinians, would find it reasonable to engage in a process that could take us there in agreement and through negotiation.”

Fayyad said that if Palestinians' interests and those of all countries in the region are ultimately to live in peace and sustainable harmony, then the process must be recalibrated. “It has to be more principled.”

Asymmetry and Conflict History


Fayyad said that asymmetry exists between Palestinians and Israelis. “You see this everywhere, in terms of power relations, you see it everywhere, all facets of life. You see it on college campuses; you see it everywhere.”

For example, he said that Israel, over 75 years, has built a strong, vibrant economy with a strong military. “So, to deny people (Palestinians) the right to self-determination, which is a right that is absolute for us under international law, just like any other people anywhere in the world,” is asymmetrical.

He noted, “It is equally important, if not more important, for us Palestinians to understand that just because we are the weaker party in this balance of power … that we must actively assume full agency in the act of our liberation. We must.”

It is equally important, if not more important, for us Palestinians to understand that just because we are the weaker party in this balance of power … that we must actively assume full agency in the act of our liberation. We must.
Salam Fayyad
Former Prime Minister, Palestinian Authority

During the conversation, Diamond told Fayyad, “Everything you've talked about was challenging enough on Oct. 6.” But, he asked, how have the last seven months after a devastating terrorist attack affected everything, including the war in Gaza that has leveled much of the physical infrastructure of the country? “Where do we go from here?”

Fayyad described Oct. 7 as a “major shock” that has made a solution more difficult and distant than it already was. He added that Israel’s response to eliminate Hamas is likely impossible to extremely unlikely.

A Sisyphean Task


Our freedom is an inalienable right, Fayyad said about the Palestinian people, and it's an inseparable component of them as human beings. 

“As human beings and members of the human race, like everyone, we have that to share with everyone else. You have to have that kind of recalibration.”

Future conversations between Palestinians and Israelis have to begin from the recognition that two equal parties exist to this disagreement, he said. “Not the oppressor, not the oppressed, not the master and the slave. Not the master and the surrogate.”

Fayyad compared the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to a Sisyphean task of sorts. 

“But I never really understood Sisyphus to be an exercise in futility myself,” he said. “You learn something every time that boulder rolls back on. It's really about empowerment. That’s why it is most inspiring to try it. Even if you fail, even if you know you’re going to fail, you learn from it, you learn from it, and you keep pushing that boulder up the hill. There will come a point in time when the stars align for that which is just.”

The Program on Arab Reform and Democracy at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University examines the different social and political dynamics within Arab countries and the evolution of their political systems, focusing on the prospects, conditions, and possible pathways for democratic reform in the region.

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Panelists at the event "1973 Yom Kippur War: Lessons Learned"
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Family and friends of May Naim, 24, who was murdered by Palestinians militants at the "Supernova" festival, near the Israeli border with Gaza strip, react during her funeral on October 11, 2023 in Gan Haim, Israel. (Getty Images)
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FSI Scholars Analyze Implications of Hamas’ Terror Attack on Israel

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Salam Fayyad, former prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, spoke about the quest for peace and Palestinian statehood during a conversation on the Palestinian people, the Gaza War, and the conflict’s implications for stability in the Middle East, hosted by CDDRL’s Program on Arab Reform and Democracy.

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Rachel Owens
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What has driven Russia’s violence in and against Ukraine from the 19th century to the contemporary era? In a recent Rethinking European Development and Security (REDS) Seminar talk co-hosted by The Europe Center and CDDRL, Eugene Finkel, the Kenneth H. Keller Associate Professor of International Affairs at Johns Hopkins University, argued that Russia’s recurrent attacks against Ukraine can be traced to issues of identity and security. Finkel draws on what he described as a two-hundred-year-long quest by Russia to dominate Ukraine, as detailed in his upcoming book Intent to Destroy (due for release in November 2024 by Basic Books).

Reflecting on the role of Russian identity in driving the country’s attempts to capture Ukraine, Finkel pointed out that many Russians think of Ukrainians as a subbranch of the Russian people.  These stark views on identity, he noted, are partly the product of the struggle between the Russian Empire and the Polish Independence movement. In an effort to avoid Polish influence, Russia began emphasizing unity between the Russian and Ukrainian people.

Security is another key driver of Russia’s aggression. There are large geographical features that block off Ukraine from the rest of Europe, but no such dividing features exist between Ukraine and Russia. As such, any force that enters Ukraine can easily invade Russia. Historical repetition of this route has made Ukraine seemingly imperative to Russian national security.

Regime security also plays an important role. Many of the democratic ideas reaching Russia were diffused through Ukraine. Abiding by the logic of Russians and Ukrainians as one people, if Ukraine can be democratic, so can Russia. Thus, an independent democratic Ukraine poses a serious ideological threat to the regime. 

Finkel argues that identity and security have always been the driving factors of Russia’s aggression. To illustrate this continuity of this trend, he draws upon a case study from the early 20th century, namely the Russian occupation of Galicia and Bukovyna. As rising Ukrainian activism threatened the Russian empire, the regime responded with propaganda peddling the notion that Ukraine had been created to destroy Russia from within – a stark parallel to propaganda today. Russia also waged a war to “liberate” the Ukrainians, believing that annexing Galicia would allow Russia to reestablish its rightful boundaries.

The conflict resulted in violence and plunder against civilians, targeting of Ukrainian community leaders, banning Ukrainian publications, and switching the education system – actions closely mimicking those of Russia today. 

In 2022, Russia’s “divide and repress” strategy failed. Ukraine witnessed the emergence of a nation – Ukrainian identity became more pronounced. Russia’s initial plan was to repress Ukraine’s elites, not conduct mass executions. But as the war progressed and Ukrainians turned from brother to traitor, the violence escalated. 

This obsession begs the question – when will Russia’s quest to dominate Ukraine end? Or rather, how? Given the central role of identity in driving this quest, Finkel believes that the only realistic path for ending this longstanding trend is changing the education system – a path that Russia seems to be moving further away from.

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Beatriz Magaloni presents during a CDDRL research seminar on April 11, 2024.
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According to Eugene Finkel, the Kenneth H. Keller Associate Professor of International Affairs at Johns Hopkins University, Russia’s recurrent attacks against Ukraine can be traced to issues of identity and security.

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