Instilling healthy eating and exercise habits in children may help prevent obesity later in life. But which kids most need such obesity-prevention efforts? A recent study by Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert and colleagues at Stanford's School of Medicine showed that this question is harder to answer than it seems. The study, published earlier this year in Medical Decision Making, found that targeting obesity prevention to small children who are overweight might not be effective. That's because a higher-than-normal weight at age 5 provides an accurate predictor of adult obesity only 50 percent of the time.

Goldhaber-Fiebert, an assistant professor of medicine and core faculty member of Stanford Health Policy, discusses the problem.

What does your paper tell us about the recent focus on childhood and adolescent obesity measurements?

Our study has two take-home messages. First, while childhood obesity is an important problem, solving childhood obesity alone will not solve future adult obesity problems. Second, addressing future adult obesity will require broader societal measures — not simply interventions focused on obese children.

It used to be that no one worried much if a small child was chubby; the doctor might say, "It's baby fat, he'll grow out of it." How has that changed?

In fact, our data show that many children still do "grow out of it." But our findings suggest that it is difficult to predict whether this will happen for a specific child. Consequently, efforts to help obese children must be connected to broader efforts to create healthy diets and habits for all children.

Childhood obesity is concerning both because it presents increased health risks for individuals while they are children and also because of the fear that it will translate into serious adult obesity-related health issues. Our analyses show that targeting children who are already obese is unlikely to be sufficient in addressing broader public health challenges of obesity in later childhood, adolescence and adulthood.

Are there other more promising screening criteria for chronic adult obesity instead of using a child's weight?

It really depends on the purpose of screening. Researchers have identified a variety of characteristics to predict a child's future obesity status — for example, easily observed measures like the weight of a child's parent as well as more complex measures such as their size at birth and the rapidity with which they subsequently grew and gained weight.

The challenge is to have a measure that both does not miss a substantial fraction of those who become obese later on and also does not falsely predict obesity for a large number of those who do not become obese as adults. The trade-off between these two types of errors depends on the seriousness of health implications of obesity and the costs of treating health conditions once they arise, as well as the health and economic costs of delivering preventive interventions to people who are identified as being at risk of becoming obese regardless of whether they become obese in the future.

What are some of the best potential approaches for reducing childhood obesity if the entire population is being targeted?

Given that many health-related habits are developed in childhood, efforts to create healthy eating and exercise habits in children would seem to be beneficial. But for most potential interventions, we lack evidence of their widespread effectiveness over a long period of time. Do reductions in obesity persist from childhood into adulthood? Do they lead to measurable improvements in health outcomes? We do not have answers to these key questions.

Food, beverage or sugar taxes and other manipulations to food prices or availability may be effective, but may also have unintended harms and certainly come at the cost of curtailing personal choice. Re-engineering the built environment or nudging people with various behavioral/economic mechanisms have garnered attention though, again, widely generalizable evidence on them is lacking. The problem deserves continued creativity and ongoing evaluation and testing.

Your paper focuses on which obese children will become obese adults, yet we are seeing a growing number of children experiencing type-2 diabetes and other negative health consequences of being overweight before they're even out of their teen years. Is adult obesity the best endpoint to focus on?

Obesity-related conditions of childhood clearly should not be ignored. What we are concerned about is the sense that people were conflating good care for children to deal with their shorter-term health needs (i.e., childhood obesity management to deal with childhood health issues) and the belief that such an approach might largely solve the broader adult obesity issues. Addressing childhood obesity is still important even if it does not fix adult obesity and its deleterious health consequences.

Erin Digitale is the pediatrics writer for Stanford School of Medicine's Office of Communication and Public Affairs.

Douglas Owens, director of the Center for Health Policy at FSI and the Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research in the Department of Medicine and School of Medicine, has been appointed to the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

The task force is an independent, volunteer panel of 16 experts in prevention and evidence-based medicine that makes recommendations and develops clinical guidelines for preventive services. They focus on issues including screening for breast cancer, colon cancer, prostate cancer, cervical cancer, diabetes, drug and alcohol misuse, and hepatitis C.

“These guidelines are used widely, and they address important issues for our veterans, and for the nation at large,” said Owens, the associate director of the Center for Health Care Evaluation at the VA Palo Alto Health Care System and the Henry J. Kaiser Jr. Professor at Stanford.

“I look forward to working with the Task Force.”

As incomes rise around the world, health experts expect a more troubling figure to increase as well: the number of diabetics in developing countries.

In China and India – two of the world’s most populous nations with fast-paced economies – the prevalence of diabetes is expected to double by 2025. Between 15 and 20 percent of their adult population will develop the disease as household budgets increase, diets change to include more calories and new health problems emerge.

But China, India and other developing countries are not fully prepared to deal with the rising trend of diabetes. And a growing number of diabetics aren’t getting the care they need to prevent serious complications, Stanford researchers say.

Even with insurance, many diabetics don’t have essential medications that could help them manage their conditions. In many cases, people are spending a great deal of their household incomes to pay for their treatment, said Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert, an assistant professor of medicine who led the research team.

“Public and private health insurance programs aren’t providing sufficient protection for diabetics in many developing countries,” said Goldhaber-Fiebert, a faculty member at Stanford Health Policy at the university’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. “People with insurance aren’t doing markedly better than those who don’t have it. Health insurance and health systems need to be re-oriented to better address chronic diseases like diabetes.”

Findings from the study are online and will be published in the Jan. 24 edition of Diabetes Care, the journal of the American Diabetes Association. The journal article was co-authored by Jay Bhattacharya, an associate professor of medicine and Stanford Health Policy faculty member; and Crystal Smith-Spangler, an instructor at Stanford’s Department of Medicine and an investigator at the Palo Alto VA Health Care System.

Failure to adequately manage diabetes will lead to more severe health problems like blindness, heart disease and kidney failure. It also harms the otherwise healthy, Goldhaber-Fiebert said.

Diabetes often strikes people at an age when they’re taking care of children and elderly parents. To sideline these primary caretakers as dependants will lead to a heavy burden for communities and create an obstacle for economic growth, he added.

Using responses to a global survey conducted by the World Health Organization in 2002 and 2003, Goldhaber-Fiebert and his colleagues examined data from 35 low- and middle-income countries in Asia, Latin America, Africa and Eastern Europe to determine whether diabetics with insurance were more likely to have medication than those without insurance.

They also wanted to know whether insured diabetics have a lower risk of “catastrophic medical spending,” a term the researchers define as spending more than 25 percent of a household income on medical care.

“Surprisingly, diabetics with insurance were no more likely to have the medications they need than uninsured diabetics,” Goldhaber-Fiebert said. “They were also no less likely to suffer catastrophic medical spending.”

There are many reasons why health insurance may not protect diabetics in developing countries against high out-of-pocket spending. In some cases, there’s a lack of sufficient medication – such as insulin – that regulate glucose levels. Without those drugs, there’s a greater risk of complications that often lead to more hospitalizations and more expenses.

In other cases, co-payments and deductibles are too high. Sometimes, drugs and medical services to prevent diabetes complications are not covered. And doctors and hospitals don’t always accept insurance.

“Better policies are needed to provide sufficient protection and care for diabetics in the developing world,” Goldhaber-Fiebert said.

Without medications to manage diabetes and prevent secondary complications, the condition will worsen and the burden of catastrophic spending will increase, he said.

“It’s important to get ahead of the curve and prepare so there’s an infrastructure in place to deal with these health and cost issues,” he said.

While preventing diabetes in the first place would be ideal, programs and policies must be established to care for the many cases that will surely continue to exist.

“There isn’t a single country that’s managed to entirely arrest or reverse the trend of diabetes,” he said. “Programs that focus on primary prevention are extremely important, but the reality is that the developing world faces hundreds of millions of diabetes cases that are unlikely to all be prevented.”

When Siyan Yi was a medical student in Cambodia 12 years ago, he volunteered with a collaborative government-NGO project to provide young women at high risk for HIV/AIDS—the victims of sexual exploitation—with housing, vocational training, medical care, and psychological support. Cambodia at that time had one of Asia’s highest HIV-infection rates.

That rate has dropped by half, thanks to government policy measures, international NGO support, and the efforts of medical professionals like Yi. Cambodia’s government must now find ways to curb HIV infection in new segments of the population, says Yi, who is the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center’s inaugural Developing Asia Health Policy Fellow. Sustaining funding for the long-term care of HIV-infected individuals also poses a future challenge, he explains, and new health issues associated with development are beginning to crop up.

Cambodia’s first HIV case was detected in 1991 in a blood donor, and the rate of HIV/AIDS increased dramatically throughout the decade. HIV/AIDS hit Thailand slightly earlier, and was spread through the commercial sex trade. The epidemic reached an even greater scale there than it ever did in Cambodia.

Thailand’s government struck back with a 100-percent condom use promotion program, which Cambodia successfully adopted in the late 1990s. Brothels are illegal in Cambodia, but the government worked cooperatively with owners to provide basic HIV/AIDS education to sex workers. These efforts significantly reduced the transmission of HIV.

Since then, a more indirect form of prostitution has sprung up in places such as karaoke halls, massage parlors, restaurants, and even in factories. HIV prevalence remains high among some sentinel groups such as female sex workers, beer promoters, men who have sex with men (MSM), injected-drug users, and migrant workers.

Yi advocates that the government expand the scope of its HIV/AIDS prevention programs to encompass these new at-risk populations. He even suggests that the government consider creating a system of licensed brothels such as previously existed in Hong Kong and Taiwan. “It would provide the government with an easier means of controlling prostitution, and allow it to work with brothel owners to control HIV-infection rates,” states Yi.

HIV increases the risk of contracting or developing symptoms of tuberculosis; a large proportion of Cambodia’s population carries the disease but shows no signs of it. Tuberculosis went largely undetected during the decades of the Khmer Rouge regime, but with the advent of HIV/AIDS it has become more prevalent. Yi has been involved in government-NGO projects to provide tuberculosis screening for HIV patients, including a tuberculosis control project with the Japan International Cooperation Agency.

Tuberculosis screening and HIV treatment advances may greatly prolong the life—and even improve the health—of patients. But heartening as Cambodia’s success against HIV/AIDS has proven in the past decade, the government largely bears the responsibility for funding the expensive treatment and care for the low-income individuals most affected by it. A critical portion of government funding for its HIV/AIDS prevention programs comes from external organizations. 

“I think that the main issue for the government of Cambodia in the battle against HIV and AIDS is financial sustainability,” says Yi, who worries that donor agencies will withdraw support as the HIV-infection rate continues to improve. Prevention is less expensive, he explains, but long-term care is costly to a developing country such as Cambodia.

Yi, however, feels less concerned now about the HIV/AIDS epidemic and speaks hopefully of working to help the government find ways to measure and treat non-communicable diseases associated with economic development, such as diabetes and hypertension. While he is at Stanford, he will collaborate with Asia Health Policy Program researchers to move his work toward solving Cambodia’s new health challenges.

The results of my research [on HIV/AIDS intervention programs in China] have led to improvements in the…programs that were studied, and potentially will lead to broader change as I write up my research for publication. My research experience showed me the rewarding impact of public policy analysis on the quality and scope of health services. As a result, I decided to pursue a master’s in public policy at Stanford.

-Crystal Zheng, MA student, Public Policy Program

As an undergraduate student majoring in East Asian studies, Crystal Zheng spent two summers conducting extensive HIV/AIDS-related field research in China’s Yunnan province and Shenzhen special economic zone. Zheng worked closely with primary thesis advisor Karen Eggleston, director of the Asia Health Policy Program (AHPP) at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC). In the end, the project shaped the direction of her future academic and professional interests as well as contributed to potentially far-reaching program improvements for a key health policy challenge in China.

In the short time since its 2007 founding, AHPP has empowered the research of numerous Stanford University students like Zheng—emerging scholars, researchers, and thought leaders—through its teaching and mentoring activities. The program promotes the comparative study of health and health policy across the Asia-Pacific region, and its work with students closely accords with Shorenstein APARC’s commitment to training the next generation of scholars. In keeping with the interdisciplinary nature of scholarship at Shorenstein APARC, students who tap into AHPP’s resources come from a wide variety of academic backgrounds.

The six undergraduate and graduate students profiled here have conducted or are in the process of carrying out timely, innovative research focusing on various aspects of healthcare and health policy in China. Depending on the context of their research, many students—such as Zheng, who received a Chappell Lougee Scholarship and a Major Grant through the Vice Provost for Undergraduate Education (VPUE)—have found Stanford-based funding in the form of research assistantships, grants, and scholarships. Several have also conducted substantial field research in China—even without prior Chinese-language training. In many cases, the research has proved life changing—one student was so inspired that she entirely switched the focus of her graduate studies.

It has been a true privilege to work with these students—their enthusiasm, quick learning, and productive research on their chosen topics make them a pleasure to mentor.”

-Karen Eggleston, Director, AHPP

Amy Chen, a human biology major and a 2011 Newman Civic Fellow Award recipient, will spend the summer surveying and conducting interviews with medical staff and students at Shandong Provincial Hospital to understand hospital worker attitudes about organ donation and transplantation in China. She received a Chappell Lougee Scholarship and a supplementary grant from the Center for East Asian Studies (CEAS) in support of her research activities. Eggleston, who is serving as Chen’s advisor for the project, helped connect Chen with colleagues at Shandong University who will work with her throughout the summer. “I came to her [Eggleston] with a passion and a genuine interest in learning more about organ transplantation,” says Chen, “but through her guidance I was really able to narrow down my interests...” Chen hopes to one day establish a workplace-based organ donation education program in China and has already started developing a future action plan for it. 

Overcoming a potentially challenging language barrier, human biology major Monica Jeong successfully conducted diabetes-related research at Shandong Provincial Hospital. A recipient of a Major Grant, Jeong worked closely with her advisor Eggleston. She credits her honors research project with enriching her current work as a clinical research coordinator with the Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences. “I feel a lot more at ease interviewing patients,” she notes. “Furthermore, understanding the barriers that patients might face in seeking healthcare has made me a better-informed and more sensitive person when encountering patients at the Stanford Cancer Center.”

While studying the link between improved education enrollment and decreased mortality in Mao-era China as an AHPP research assistant, Jing Li, a former School of Education graduate student, developed a strong interest in health economics and policy analysis. “I am intrigued by the intuitiveness in quantifying relationships in health studies, as well as the crucial role of government in shaping health development using policy tools,” she says. This fall, Li will begin a doctoral program in health services and policy analysis at the University of California, Berkeley, where she plans to focus on health insurance policy, finance mechanisms, and payment systems in China. Li is particularly concerned with issues of inefficiency and inequality in healthcare policy.

Kelvin Bryan Tan, a doctoral student in the Department of Management Science and Engineering, gained a significant understanding of China’s healthcare system through the course “Healthcare in East Asia” taught by Eggleston. It led him to conduct a study to discover the optimal mix of different types of financing in medical savings-based healthcare financing systems, with a focus on Singapore and China. Eggleston worked closely with Tan, providing him with additional theoretical and background information. “This research project is likely to form a substantial part of my dissertation,” states Tan.

Anthony Vasquez, an East Asian studies master’s student, was inspired in a class taught by Eggleston to write a research paper about blindness prevention care in China, especially the role international non-governmental organizations (NGOs) play in providing this type of care in rural areas. In his research, Vasquez utilized a combination of academic literature and a study of NGOs currently operating in China. “By conducting this research,” he says, “I became more informed about the challenges that China faces in providing universal healthcare coverage, which is the government’s goal.” Although his MA thesis will focus on a different topic, Vasquez plans to stay closely connected to developments in China’s healthcare system.

Through her thesis research, Rachel Zimet Strick, a joint East Asian studies-business administration master’s student, examined the conditions for producing high-quality pharmaceuticals within China’s current market-based socialist economy. Eggleston served as her primary advisor, providing valuable guidance on her source materials and methodology, which combined economic modeling and theory, challenging field research, and primary and secondary source materials. Zimet, who now works for Abbott Laboratories as a member of its Management Development Program, credits her research with providing her with key skills that she utilizes in her work today. “[It] allowed me to demonstrate to Abbott…my ability to think deeply about the Chinese market…and to identify key market and non-market forces that would affect our business in any international environment,” she states.

AHPP welcomes inquiries from current and prospective students with an interest in issues surrounding healthcare and health policy in the Asia-Pacific region, and looks forward to continuing to help guide and inspire students for many years to come.

“Stanford attracts a diverse group of intellectually engaged students with a passion for research that can inform policy and improve lives,” says Eggleston. “AHPP strives to support those students interested in health and medical care across the Asia-Pacific, from freshmen to advanced grad students across a broad range of disciplines, to create a community of like-minded scholars and push boundaries. Our own research and policy outreach benefit tremendously from the synergies that result.”

More information about undergraduate and graduate research funding opportunities at Stanford is available at the AHPP, VPUE, CEAS, and Global Gateway websites.

In conjunction with its launch of a three-year research initiative to study the effects of demographic change in Asia, the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center is pleased to announce the publication of Aging Asia: The Economic and Social Implications of Rapid Demographic Change in China, Japan, and South Korea. The book covers a diverse range of issues of demographic change, including intergenerational transfers in Japan, marriage and the elderly in China, pension reform in South Korea, and the Asia-Pacific diabetes epidemic.