The rise of Nokia as a global ICT leader in the 1990s and early 2000s was dramatic, as a company from the small Nordic country of Finland became a global titan. The lack of Japanese presence in global ICT industries in the 1990s and 2000s was unexpected, as it was a technological and platform leader in its domestic market but without followers in global markets. The advent of the iPhone and Android from Silicon Valley companies in the late 2000s thoroughly disrupted both Nokia and the Japanese companies. What happened? Why did it happen, and what were the lessons learned? Now, with the dominance and concentration of Silicon Valley companies and the rise of China in new areas such as AI and digital services, how do we understand the dynamics of competition unfolding? What general conclusions can we draw about the possibilities and risks of national strategies from  the past experiences?

This panel brings expertise from China, Europe, Japan, and Silicon Valley to discuss these questions. 

This event is brought to you by Shorenstein APARC Japan Program's Stanford Silicon Valley-New Japan Project in collaboration with the Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy (BRIE)

AGENDA

Moderator and panelist: John Zysman, Co-founder, Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy. Author of “The Third Globalization: Can Wealth Countries Stay Rich.”

3:00pm-3:05pm         Introduction & Opening Remarks

3:05pm-3:35pm         The rise and fall of Nokia as a global mobile leader, a management perspective

Presenter: Yves Doz, Solvay Chaired Professor of Technological Innovation, INSEAD. Author of “Ringtone: Exploring the Rise and Fall of Nokia in Mobile Phones” (2018)

3:35pm-4:05pm         How Silicon Valley commoditized the global ICT industry. Japan: leading without followers, then disrupted, a political economy perspective

Presenter: Kenji Kushida, Research Scholar, Stanford University. Author of “The politics of commoditization in global ICT industries: a political economy explanation of the rise of Apple, Google, and industry disruptors” (2015)

4:05pm-4:35pm        AI and Global Dynamic Capabilities: The Implications for China and the United States. 

· The Chinese Case:  Can China avoid the Finnish and Japanese fate?   Will the scale of the Chinese market permit it to develop global standards?   Will the geo-political rivalry change the dynamic of the market rivalries.

· The American case: Will the American platform strengths hold in in the face of Chinese challenges? Will Europe?

Presenters: Amy Shuen, Visiting Professor, Hong Kong University (formerly at UC Berkeley, Wharton, CEIBS). Co-author, Dynamic Capabilities and Strategic Management (SMJ, Best Paper Award, 2003) Author, “Web 2.0:  A Strategy Guide” (OReilly, 2008) HKU Talk (2017) https://www.ecom-icom.hku.hk/Contents/Item/Display/1962

John Zysman, Co-founder, Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy. Author of “The Third Globalization:Can Wealth Countries Stay Rich.”

4:35pm-5:00pm         Open Discussion, Q&A

RSVP REQUIRED: http://www.stanford-svnj.org/44-panel-discussion

Abstract: China’s participation in venture deals financing is at a record level of 10-16% of all venture deals (2015-2017) and has grown quite rapidly in the past seven years.  Technologies where Chinese firms are investing are foundational to future innovation:  artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles, augmented/virtual reality, robotics and blockchain technology. Moreover, since these technologies are dual use--designed for commercial use but also equally applicable for military applications, these are some of the same technologies of interest to the U.S. Defense Department.  

Investing is itself only a piece of a larger story of massive technology transfer from the U.S. to China. China has a long-term, systematic effort to attain global leadership in many industries, partly by transferring leading-edge technologies from around the world.

U.S. military superiority since World War II has relied on both U.S. economic scale and technological superiority. If we allow China access to these same technologies concurrently, then not only may we lose our technological superiority but we may even be facilitating China’s technological superiority. 

Speaker bio: Michael Brown is a White House Presidential Innovation Fellow in the U.S. Defense Department. He is the co-author of a Pentagon study on China’s participation in the U.S. venture ecosystem which served as key input for the proposed Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA) being reviewed with bipartisan support by both the House and Senate.

Michael is the former CEO of Symantec Corporation, the global leader in cybersecurity and the world’s 10th largest software company with revenues of $4 billion and more than 10,000 employees worldwide. During his tenure as CEO, Michael led a turnaround as the company developed a new strategy focusing on its security business.

Michael is the former Chairman & CEO of Quantum, a leader in the computer storage industry specializing in backup and archiving products. After leaving Quantum, Michael served as Chairman of EqualLogic, a storage array company. 

He serves on the Board of Trustees of the Berklee College of Music in Boston, received his BA degree in economics from Harvard University in 1980 and his MBA degree from Stanford University in 1984.  

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Professor Lee authored Economic Catch-up and Technological Leapfrogging: Path to Development & Macroeconomic Stability in Korea (2016, E Elgar); and Schumpeterian analysis of Economic catch-up (Cambridge University Press, 2013: awarded Schumpeter Prize). He is currently president of the International Schumpeter Society, a member of the Committee for Development Policy of the UN, an editor of Research Policy, an associate editor of Industrial and Corporate Change, and a council member of the World Economic Forum. He obtained a PhD in economics from the University of California, Berkeley, and worked at the World Bank, University of Aberdeen, and the East West Center, Hawaii. One of his most cited articles is a paper on Korea’s Technological Catch-up published in Research Policy, with 1,000 citations (Google Scholar). His H-index is now 35, with 85 papers with more than 10 citations.