In September 2011 the U.S. bilateral alliance system in the Asia-Pacific—the “San Francisco System” (SFS)—turned 60 years old. Against the expectations of theorists who argue that alliances cannot be sustained in the absence of a commonly perceived mutual external threat, the SFS remains operative and viable. It remains so even as multilateral approaches to regional order-building in the Asia-Pacific have proliferated. Although the identity and functions of the SFS have evolved, the speakers will argue that it remains—and will remain—a critical security mechanism in the likely absence of a comprehensive and consensual regional security arrangement that could supersede it. Their remarks will convey the findings and projections of a recent study of Asia-Pacific security undertaken by  Australian National University (ANU) and supported by the MacArthur Foundation’s Asia Security Initiative.

John Ravenhill returned to ANU in 2004, after holding the chair of politics at the University of Edinburgh from 2000. He currently directs the School of Political Science and International Relations at ANU’s College of Arts and Social Sciences. Before joining ANU in 1990, he was an associate professor at the University of Sydney, and assistant professor at the University of Virginia, after completing his PhD at the University of California, Berkeley.  He has held visiting professorships at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies; Nanyang Technology University, Singapore; the University of Geneva; the International University of Japan; and the University of California, Berkeley. His many articles have appeared in leading journals including World Politics, International Organization, Review of International Political Economy, Review of International Studies, New Political Economy, World Policy Journal, World Development, and International Affairs. His research interests include global political economy, especially the fields of trade and production, and Australian foreign policy.

William T. Tow came to ANU in early 2005, having been a professor of international relations (IR) at the University of Queensland and at Griffith University, and an assistant professor of IR at the University of Southern California. His visiting-scholar positions have included APARC (1999) and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London. Among his many writings are Politics in the Asia-Pacific: A Regional–Global Nexus? (edited, Cambridge University Press, 2009); Asia Pacific Strategic Relations: Seeking Convergent Security (Cambridge University Press, 2001); and articles in the China Journal, Review of International Studies, International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, China Quarterly, International Affairs, Survival, and Asian Survey. He also heads the ANU IR component of the Centre of Excellence in Policing and Security, was editor of the Australian Journal of International Affairs, has held positions with the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and the Australian Fulbright Commission, and received an Australian Award for University Teaching in the Social Sciences Category.

Brendan Taylor’s writings include Sanctions as Grand Strategy (2010); American Sanctions in the Asia-Pacific (2010); and articles in Asian Security, the Australian Journal of International Affairs, International Affairs, and Survival.  In addition to leading the ANU-MacArthur Asia Security Initiative Focus Group (since 2009), he has served as associate investigator, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Policing and Security; graduate studies convenor, Political Science and International Relations, ANU; and lecturer and post-doctoral fellow, SDSC.

David Envall is a Japan specialist with an interest in how foreign policy is made. He edits the ANU-MacArthur Project’s policy papers. His essays will appear in the Asian Journal of Political Science and in volumes on Australian-Japanese politico-security relations and on strategic and structural changes in the Asia-Pacific security environment.

**Due to space restrictions, this event has reached capacity and we will no longer be taking RSVPs. Please plan to arrive early as seating is on a first come, first serve basis.**

Since 2008 China's banks have made loans that approach 30% of GDP each year. The central bank has used a broader measure of credit, total societal financing, that suggests credit extended in 2011 may exceed 40% of the country's GDP. It is inevitable that such profligate lending will result in significant amounts of problem loans.  The international market is well aware of this and Chinese bank shares have been hit hard for most of this year. How will these bad loans be managed? More importantly, why has the government once again used China's ostensibly commercial banks as if they were policy banks and what are the implications of this for China's economy going forward?

Carl E. Walter worked in China and its financial sector for the past 20 years and actively participated in many of the country’s financial reform efforts. While at Credit Suisse First Boston he played a major role in China’s groundbreaking first overseas IPO in 1992, as well as the first primary listing of a state-owned enterprise on the New York Stock Exchange in 1994. He was a member of senior management at China International Capital Corporation, China’s first and most successful joint venture investment bank where he supported a number of significant domestic and international stock and bond underwritings for major Chinese corporations. More recently at JPMorgan he was China Chief Operating Officer and Chief Executive Officer of its banking subsidiary. During this time Carl helped build a pioneering domestic security, risk and currency trading operation.

A long time resident of Beijing before his recent return to the United States, Carl is fluent in Mandarin and holds a PhD from Stanford University and a graduate certificate from Peking University. He is the co-author of Red Capitalism: the fragile financial foundations of China’s extraordinary rise as well as Privatizing China: inside China’s stock markets. 

This event is part of the China's Looming Challenges series. 

The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies is proud to co-present films with the 14th UNAFF (United Nations Association Film Festival): Education is a Human Right.

The panel "Studying or Working: A Young Person's Dilemma" begins at 5:15 following the screening of the following two films:

4:30 PM film screening, "GRACE" (Philippines) 23 mins

Thirteen-­‐year-­‐old Mary-­‐Grace Rapatan has lived on a garbage dump in the Philippines her entire life, picking through mountains of trash to help feed her family. She is trapped in a cycle of poverty, but Mary-­‐Grace is determined to give herself a better future by getting an education. She scavenges on weekends to pay for school, but a family tragedy soon takes hold. While in Grade 5, Mary-­‐Grace’s father, the family’s provider, has a stroke. The girl is left a choice: quit school or starve. She begins scavenging eight hours a day on the Umapad garbage dump so her family can afford rice. Footage from a head-­‐ camera worn by Mary-­‐Grace gives us a close and disturbing look at the conditions of the Umapad garbage dump. After months of scavenging in the heat only to make about a dollar a day, Mary-­‐Grace begins wondering if she’ll ever have a second chance to build a future for her family. This film shows us the enormous burden one girl must carry, and the power education has to give children hope for the future. 

Director: Meagan Kelly
Producers: Rouven Steinfeld, Florian Hoffman

5:00 PM film screening: "White Gold: The True Cost of Cotton" (UK/Uzbekistan) 8 mins

White Gold tells the story of the true cost of cotton. Largely filmed undercover, this film exposes how each year schools are closed and tens of thousands of children are forced by the Uzbek government to work in the fields for months at a time. Uzbekistan in Central Asia is the world’s third largest exporter of cotton. Europe is one of its biggest buyers. The state controlled cotton industry makes billions of dollars for the governing elite but little of this benefits the rest of the population. A third are forced to work in modern day slavery to produce this white gold. Many are children. Tens of thousands of children, some as young as seven, are taken out of school and forced to work in the cotton fields for little or no money during the harvest. The period can last up to three months, during which older children live in dormitories or classrooms under harsh conditions. The combined effect of exhausting work, a poor diet, lack of clean water and exposure to toxic pesticides has a dramatic impact on health. These children are also missing out on vital education to pick cotton for the world’s fashion industry.

Director/Producer: Environmental Justice Foundation 

The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies is proud to co-present films with the 14th UNAFF (United Nations Association Film Festival): Education is a Human Right.

The panel, “Teachers’ Pay as a Factor in Education Quality” begins at 6:00pm following the 4:15 film screening of "American Teacher" (80 min).

About the film

American Teacher narrated by Matt Damon chronicles the stories of four teachers -­‐ Erik Benner, Jonathan Dearman, Jamie Fidler, and Rhena Jasey -­‐ who live and work in disparate urban and rural areas of the country. By following these teachers as they reach different milestones in their careers, the film tells the deeper story of the teaching profession in America today. The film shows us the experience of these four young teachers as they recognize the importance of what they do, and how much they love what they do, but ask: can I afford to continue to teach?

Directors: Vanessa Roth, Brian McGinn
Producers: Nínive Calegari, Dave Eggers, Vanessa Roth 

About the seminar

With almost 500 million internet users, China's online community is the world's largest - that fact is well known. But it's also incredibly vibrant, filled with active netizens and entrepreneurs who are pushing the boundaries of control and developing new ways of interacting online. CNN's Kristie Lu Stout has stayed on the pulse of the internet in China for over a decade - interviewing a wide array of newsmakers including Sina CEO Charles Chao and wired activist/artist Ai Weiwei. She has also worked in the industry as an early employee at Beijing's Sohu.com in the 1990s. Ms. Stout offered her unique perspective on the online experience in China, and how journalists can best report China's Internet culture.

About the speaker

Based out of CNN's Asia-Pacific headquarters in Hong Kong, Kristie Lu Stout is an award-winning anchor/correspondent for CNN International. She has reported on the world's major new stories and the people behind those stories for over a decade. She has interviewed figures in a wide range of current events including Myanmar pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, and global pop superstar Lady Gaga. Ms. Stout holds both a bachelor's and a master's degree from Stanford University, and studied advanced Mandarin Chinese at Beijing's Tsinghua University.

The complex triangular relationship between China, Taiwan, and the United States has a long and storied history, and most recently, China’s meteoric economic rise has forced a reconsideration of positions by all parties involved. China is on target to become the largest world economy in terms of purchasing power parity within the next decade, and this explosive economic growth is coupled with military expansion that challenges the existing security circumstances in the region. These developments, in turn, have put Taiwan on a path towards economic dependence, international isolation, and security threats, and Beijing’s increasing leverage in Washington allows for yet further indirect influence on cross-Strait relations.

Dr. Yeong-kuang Ger will discuss the background surrounding these issues to provide a context for analysis on the future of this important triangular relationship, and will address in particular the policy moves made by all three parties in adjustment to this changing status quo, as well as the strategy of President Ma’s administration since his election in 2008. Dr. Ger will conclude with a discussion of the implications of these developments for the United States moving forward, with an emphasis on Taiwan’s geopolitical importance to the peace and prosperity of the region as a whole.

Dr. Yeong-kuang Ger is a Member of the Control Yuan of the Republic of China, and a Professor in the Department of Political Science and the Graduate Institute of National Development at National Taiwan University. Dr. Ger received his undergraduate degree from National Taiwan University, and his Ph.D. from the Department of Political Science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. In 2009 he was awarded the Freedom Medal of Honor by the Philippine Council for World Freedom. 

In addition to his responsibilities with the Yuan and NTU, he acts as a Board Member of the American Association for Chinese Studies; and he is also a Member of the Review Committee, Center for Asian Studies, Chu Hai College in Hong Kong. Dr Ger has authored nine books and over 80 journal articles and conference papers on politics, culture, development and security in Taiwan and East Asia. His recent books include: Political Parties and Electoral Politics (2011); Security Challenges in the Asia Pacific Region: The Taiwan Factor with M.J. Vinod and S.Y. Surendra Kumar (2009); Ideology and Development: Dr. Sun Yat-sen’s Thoughts and Taiwan’s Developmental Experience (2005); and Party Politics and Democratic Development (2001).