Health Care
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Advancing Healthcare event by AHPP

Co-sponsored by Peking University's Institute for Global Health and Development and the Asia Health Policy Program

(Friday, September 13, 2024, 9:00am to 10:30am - Beijing time)

In this seminar, distinguished speakers will share their insights on the intersection of cutting-edge technology and healthcare policy. The event will feature short presentations followed by an in-depth discussion, exploring what it takes to bring innovative healthcare solutions from concept to implementation.

Representing different facets of the healthcare ecosystem, the presenters will address key topics such as the application and economic impact of surgical robotics, the delicate balance between pharmaceutical regulation and innovation, technology for population health and chronic disease control, and the development of digital solutions for aging populations.

This seminar offers a unique opportunity for attendees to gain valuable insights into the latest trends in healthcare technology and policy, and to engage in meaningful dialogue about shaping a healthier, more efficient future for all.

Xiaoyanlei 091224

Dr. Lei Xiaoyan is the MOE Cheung-Kong Scholar Professor of Economics, and PKU Boya Distinguished Professor. She is currently the chair of the Academic Committee of the National School of Development, the director of the PKU Center for Healthy Aging and Development Studies, and deputy director of the MOE-PKU Center for Human Capital and National Policy Research, co-editor of the Journal of Economics of Aging, and a research fellow of IZA. Her research spans the areas of labor economics, health economics, and economics of aging. Her research has been published in Review of Economics and Statistics, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, among others. Since 2020, she has consecutively been included on Elsevier’s List of Highly-cited Scholars in China. She received a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, Los Angeles in 2007.

Min Yu 091224

Professor Min Yu graduated from the Department of Clinical Medicine at Zhejiang Medical University with a Bachelor of Medicine degree in 1988 and a Master's degree in Public Health from Beijing Medical University in 1998.

Professor Yu focuses on the prevention and control of chronic diseases and injuries. He has served as the chief editor or co-editor of five monographs and has published over 20 peer-reviewed papers. He has led one project under the National Key R&D Program’s “Precision Medicine Initiative” and three provincial or ministry-level projects. Professor Yu has received the third prize of the Science and Technology Award from the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association, the third prize of the Provincial Science and Technology Advancement Award, and the second prize of Provincial Medical and Health Science and Technology.

Beinilyu 091224

Dr. Beini Lyu's research interests are pharmacoepidemiology, clinical epidemiology of chronic diseases, real-world studies, and health technology assessment. Dr. Lyu’s work has been published in top medical journals such as the Lancet Regional Health-Americas, Diabetes Care, and the American Journal of Kidney Diseases. She served as PI of a research grant from the American Society of Diagnostic and Interventional Nephrology (ASDIN). She has received the Donn D 'Alessio Outstanding Student Award from the Department of Population Health at the University of Wisconsin, the American Heart Association Student Research Fellowship in Cardiovascular Disease, and the Chinese Government Award for Outstanding Self-Financed Student Abroad. Dr. Lyu received her M.D. from Peking University and her Ph.D. in epidemiology from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Jianan Yang 091224

Dr. Jianan Yang's primary research fields are health economics and development economics, with specific interests in health policy reform, health behavior and healthcare demand, and pharmaceutical innovation. Her research papers have been published in leading international journals in development economics, such as the Journal of Development Economics. She has also served as an anonymous reviewer for renowned academic journals including the Journal of Public Economics, the Journal of Development Economics, and the Journal of Health Economics, among others. She earned her bachelor’s degrees in Economics and Mathematics from Renmin University of China in 2016, and her Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, San Diego in 2022. Before joining Peking University, she was a postdoctoral fellow in the Asian Health Policy Program at Stanford University.

Yuhang Pan 091224

Dr. Yuhang Pan's research fields include environmental economics, health economics, and development economics, with a focus on using a causal inference approach to study the impact of environmental pollution, public policy, and climate change on health and social welfare. His works have been published in economics and scientific journals, such as Science, Nature Sustainability, and the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. Dr. Pan obtained his undergraduate degree from Beijing Normal University in 2015 and his doctoral degree from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology in 2021. Prior to joining Peking University, he worked as a postdoctoral researcher at the Faculty of Business and Economics at the University of Hong Kong.

Yuhang Pan, Assistant Professor of Economics, Peking University Institute for Global Health and Development

Online via Zoom Webinar

Xiaoyan Lei, Professor of Economics, Peking University National School of Development and Institute for Global Health and Development
Min Yu, Deputy Director, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and Standing Committee Member of Injury Epidemiology Branch of the Chinese Preventive Medical Association
Beini Lyu, Assistant Professor, Peking University Institute for Global Health and Development
Jianan Yang, Assistant Professor, Peking University Institute for Global Health and Development
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The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) is pleased to invite applications for a host of fellowships in contemporary Asia studies to begin in Autumn quarter 2025.

The Center offers postdoctoral fellowships that promote multidisciplinary research on Asia-focused health policy, contemporary Japan, and contemporary Asia broadly defined, postdoctoral fellowships and visiting scholar positions with the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab, and a fellowship for experts on Southeast Asia. Learn more about each opportunity and its eligibility and specific application requirements:

Asia Health Policy Program Postdoctoral Fellowship

Hosted by the Asia Health Policy Program at APARC, the fellowship is awarded to one recent PhD undertaking original research on contemporary health or healthcare policy of high relevance to countries in the Asia-Pacific region, especially developing countries. Appointments are for one year beginning in Autumn quarter 2025. The application deadline is December 1, 2024.

Japan Program Postdoctoral Fellowship

Hosted by the Japan Program at APARC, the fellowship supports research on contemporary Japan in a broad range of disciplines including political science, economics, sociology, law, policy studies, and international relations. Appointments are for one year beginning in Autumn quarter 2025. The application deadline is December 1, 2024.  

Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellowship on Contemporary Asia

APARC offers two postdoctoral fellowship positions to junior scholars for research and writing on contemporary Asia. The primary research areas focus on political, economic, or social change in the Asia-Pacific region (including Northeast, Southeast, and South Asia), or international relations and international political economy in the region. Appointments are for one year beginning in Autumn quarter 2025. The application deadline is December 1, 2024. 
 

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The Center offers multiple fellowships for Asia researchers to begin in Autumn quarter 2025. These include postdoctoral fellowships on Asia-focused health policy, contemporary Japan, and the Asia-Pacific region, postdoctoral fellowships and visiting scholar positions with the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab, a visiting scholar position on contemporary Taiwan, and fellowships for experts on Southeast Asia.

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George Krompacky
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On October 18, as part of its autumn 2023 seminar series on APEC in advance of the organization's meeting in San Francisco in November, Shorenstein APARC and its Asia Health Policy Program (AHPP) presented the series' second event, Asia-Pacific Digital Health Innovation: Technology, Trust, and the Role of APEC. The featured panelists were Kiran Gopal Vaska, Director of the National Health Authority of India, and CK Cheruvettolil, the Senior Strategy Officer, Digital Health and Artificial Intelligence, at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Siyan Yi, the Director of the Integrated Research Program at the National University of Singapore and a former AHPP fellow, moderated the conversation.

While India is not an APEC member, Indian initiatives are examples of leveraging technology to better the health of the most vulnerable citizens in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Kiran Gopal Vaska gave an overview of the Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission (ABDM), India's latest health initiative that focuses on the interoperability of health records, services, and health claims. He stressed that ABDM was built on previous digital infrastructure, like Aadhaar, the national digital identity system, and Digilocker, a digital storage scheme for citizens' health and other records.

In ABDM, we do just three things: interoperability of health records, interoperability of services, and interoperability of health claims.
Kiran Gopal Vaska
Director of the National Health Authority of India

The approach India has taken is for the government to build the rails—the infrastructure of the system—and create a space where the private sector can develop applications integrated with that space through application programming interfaces (APIs), avoiding the siloing that can hamper the interoperability of data.

Regarding health data, privacy is a crucial concern at the patient level. ABDM addresses this concern through the use of a consent artifact. Individuals decide whether hospitals or other medical service providers have access to their data, and this access has levels of granularity: you can share specific portions of 7 different data types, like immunizations or prescriptions. You can limit that sharing to a particular period, like one day.

Also participating on the panel was CK Cheruvettolil, who discussed strategies by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation in leveraging the power of mobile phones to augment the work of Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHAs), the more than one million female frontline health workers in India. ASHAs can use mobile phone cameras, sensors, and streaming data to better care for low-birth-weight babies and other patients. 

If [software] is developed in isolation without understanding that social context, you would lose a huge portion of the population, you'd lose that effectiveness.
CK Cheruvettolil
Senior Strategy Officer, Digital Health and Artificial Intelligence, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

He explained the critical role of taking local context into account when developing software by using the example of pregnant Indian women in their third trimesters. The custom for Indian mothers, especially in rural areas, is for the child to be born in the maternal grandparents' home. If software were to store only the mother's address, healthcare workers in the grandparents' jurisdiction would not know that a pregnant woman in the critical third trimester would soon be giving birth at a local address.

Kiran Gopal Vaska noted that India had solved the technological issues, and now the task was to push for adoption. He emphasized that the technologies underlying India's digital health stack were created as public goods for the world, and for LMICs to support each other in advancing digital health technologies, the key was interoperability, "using standards that are accessible and acceptable worldwide."

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How South Koreans Feel About Telemedicine as an Alternative to In-Person Medical Consultations

A new study, co-authored by Asia Health Policy Director Karen Eggleston, investigated preferences for telemedicine services for chronic disease care in South Korea during the COVID-19 pandemic and found that preferences differed according to patient demographics.
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Kiran Gopal Vaska, CK Cheruvettolil, and Siyan Yi at the panel discussion on digitial health initiatives
(L to R) Kiran Gopal Vaska, CK Cheruvettolil, and Siyan Yi
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Shorenstein APARC continued its APEC seminar series with the second installment, Asia-Pacific Digital Health Innovation: Technology, Trust, and the Role of APEC, a panel discussion that focused on how India’s digital health strategy has evolved and its lessons for other countries creating their own.

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George Krompacky
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Telemedicine has faced an uphill battle in South Korea and in fact, under the nation’s Medical Services Act, it is currently prohibited, a result of opposition from the medical community and other stakeholders. However, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the South Korean government temporarily allowed for prescriptions and counseling by phone, which gave investigators the opportunity to examine patient preferences toward the service. 

It has been demonstrated that for consultations on chronic diseases—diabetes, hypertension, and heart disease—telemedicine is effectively equal to in-person visits, and moreover is convenient. Previous studies have looked at patient attitudes toward telemedicine but not many have used the COVID-19 pandemic as a backdrop. 

A new study, published in the Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health, helps to address this knowledge gap. The researchers focused on patients with the chronic diseases of diabetes and hypertension in South Korea and asked them about their preferences for telemedicine versus in-person care, including under different levels of recommended social distancing.

The co-authors of the study are Karen Eggleston, director of the Asia Health Policy Program at Shorenstein APARC; Annie Chang, ’21, MS ’22, currently an MD candidate at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York City, who started the project as a Stanford student; Richard Liang, MD/PhD candidate at Stanford, and Daejung Kim of the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs.

The data was collected from a larger study on the impacts of the pandemic on the management of chronic disease in a number of Asian countries.

Chang notes that her research with Eggleston began after taking her course Health and Healthcare Systems in East Asia: “As a Korean American, I was naturally interested in learning more about South Korea and its healthcare system. I had the opportunity to work with Dr. Eggleston during the COVID-19 pandemic, when telemedicine usage surged globally.”

The study findings indicate that respondents did not have a strong preference for telemedicine services during the COVID-19 pandemic. This could be attributed to the prohibition of such services outside of the pandemic, to unfamiliarity with the technology, or to other factors.

However, the results show that attitudes toward telemedicine differed among demographic segments: younger patients, who tend to be more familiar with new technologies, had a higher preference for telemedicine, as did males (who are more likely to be employed, restricting their time for in-person visits), and those whose access to healthcare was more restricted.

This research carries significant policy implications concerning the advancement of telemedicine in South Korea and elsewhere. To make better use of telemedicine, policymakers should raise awareness of and familiarity with the services, especially among older populations who are less comfortable with new technologies. There is also a need to develop basic guidelines for telemedicine practices like reimbursement and data security to encourage the adoption of telemedicine as a viable alternative to in-person consultations. 

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A new study, co-authored by Asia Health Policy Director Karen Eggleston, investigated preferences for telemedicine services for chronic disease care in South Korea during the COVID-19 pandemic and found that preferences differed according to patient demographics.

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Noa Ronkin
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This announcement was updated on October 6, 2023, to reflect the addition of two new fellowship offerings focused on contemporary Taiwan.


The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) is pleased to invite applications for a suite of fellowships in contemporary Asia studies to begin fall quarter 2024.

The Center offers postdoctoral fellowships that promote multidisciplinary research on Asia-focused health policy; contemporary Japan; contemporary Asia broadly defined; postdoctoral fellowships and visiting scholar positions as part of the new Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab; and a fellowship for experts on Southeast Asia. Learn more about each opportunity and its eligibility and specific application requirements:

Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellowship

Hosted by the Asia Health Policy Program at APARC, the fellowship is awarded annually to one recent PhD undertaking original research on contemporary health or healthcare policy of high relevance to countries in the Asia-Pacific region, especially developing countries. Appointments are for one year beginning in fall quarter 2024. The application deadline is December 1, 2023.

Postdoctoral Fellowship on Contemporary Japan

Hosted by the Japan Program at APARC, the fellowship supports research on contemporary Japan in a broad range of disciplines including political science, economics, sociology, law, policy studies, and international relations. Appointments are for one year beginning in fall quarter 2024. The application deadline is December 1, 2023.  
 

Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellowship on Contemporary Asia

APARC offers two postdoctoral fellowship positions to junior scholars for research and writing on contemporary Asia. The primary research areas focus on political, economic, or social change in the Asia-Pacific region (including Northeast, Southeast, and South Asia), or international relations and international political economy in the region. Appointments are for one year beginning in fall quarter 2024. The application deadline is December 1, 2023.  
 

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The Center offers a suite of fellowships for Asia researchers to begin in fall quarter 2024. These include postdoctoral fellowships on Asia-focused health policy, contemporary Japan, and the Asia-Pacific region, postdoctoral fellowships and visiting scholar positions with the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab, and fellowships for experts on Southeast Asia.

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Noa Ronkin
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Do increases in medical spending improve health outcomes? To answer this question, analysts need to quantify the net value of medical spending and measure the productivity of medical care with the output of improvement in survival and quality of life, thereby deducing for what medical conditions the “bang for the buck” is greatest and for what conditions spending outstrips gains in health improvement.

This condition-specific, quality-adjusted net value approach to health spending is known as a “satellite account for health” because it “orbits around” the national income and product accounts that include aggregate health spending to provide a clearer picture of productivity in the health sector. Thus far, researchers have applied this account to the U.S. health sector only, but it would be highly beneficial for many economies. One notable beneficiary would be South Korea, one of the most rapidly aging societies globally. Now new research by Karen Eggleston, the director of APARC’s Asia Health Policy Program, studies the link between medical spending and health outcomes in South Korea, providing evidence on the productivity of medical spending over recent decades.

The research, published by the East-West Center, develops an estimate of the net value of Korean medical spending, which has outpaced most other countries in recent decades. To generate this estimate, Eggleston compares the gains in life expectancy at birth to the increases in medical spending for 2000–2019. Data comes from Korean lifetables and medical expenditures per capita, available from the Korean Statistical Information Services.


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Korea can develop an accurate measure of medical productivity and a more accurate measure of overall economic productivity while becoming a global pioneer of “health satellite accounts” for overall populations.
Karen Eggleston

Eggleston shows that, even with the most conservative assumptions ($50,000 per life-year and only 10 percent of health gains due to medical care), the net value of Korean medical spending is positive and substantial. Korean life expectancy at birth increased from 76 in 2000 to 83.3 in 2019, while lifetime medical spending increased by over $19,000. The value of 7.3 additional years of life far outweighs even this rapid increase in spending, implying substantial productivity growth in Korea’s health sector.

Moreover, evidence on condition-specific spending changes and health improvements suggests that Korea’s rapid spending increases yield significant net value. Eggleston’s research indicates that improvements in survival for key conditions afflicting Koreans, such as stroke and cancer, point to productivity gains. “Korea could be a pioneer in developing a national health account that accurately measures net value by medical condition,” she writes.

Condition-specific metrics of health gain per won spent on treatment can help to guide the allocation of investments to promote longer, healthier lives. In the future, analysts could also link condition-specific improvements in survival and morbidity to earnings. Such linkage would particularly benefit South Korea, where focusing on the productivity of older adult employment is crucial given its high labor force participation and relatively low income of older Koreans.

Eggleston advocates for the Korean government to develop a national satellite account for health that can provide valuable evidence for prioritizing investments to address the country’s most pressing health challenges so that productivity improvement will contribute to longer, healthier lives. “By linking National Health Insurance and health outcome data, Korea could develop an accurate measure of medical productivity and a more accurate measure of overall economic productivity, while pioneering development of ‘health satellite accounts’ for overall populations,” Eggleston argues.

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Research by Stanford health economist Karen Eggleston, the director of APARC's Asia Health Policy Program, offers evidence on the link between medical spending and health outcomes in South Korea, showing how the country can benefit from developing a “satellite account for health” to promote high-value innovations for longer, healthier lives.

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Background

The prevalence of diabetes has risen sharply in China. Improving modifiable risk factors such as glycaemia and blood pressure could substantially reduce disease burden and treatment costs to achieve a healthier China by 2030.

Methods

We used a nationally representative population-based survey of adults with diabetes in 31 provinces in mainland China to assess the prevalence of risk factor control. We adopted a microsimulation approach to estimate the impact of improved control of blood pressure and glycaemia on mortality, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and healthcare cost. We applied the validated CHIME diabetes outcomes model over a 10-year time horizon. Baseline scenario of status quo was evaluated against alternative strategies based on World Health Organization and Chinese Diabetes Society guidelines.

Findings

Among 24,319 survey participants with diabetes (age 30–70), 69.1% (95% CI: 67.7–70.5) achieved optimal diabetes control (HbA1c <7% [53 mmol/mol]), 27.7% [26.1–29.3] achieved blood pressure control (<130/80 mmHg) and 20.1% (18.6–21.6) achieved both targets. Achieving 70% control rate for people with diabetes could reduce deaths before age 70 by 7.1% (5.7–8.7), reduce medical costs by 14.9% (12.3–18.0), and gain 50.4 QALYs (44.8–56.0) per 1000 people over 10 years compared to the baseline status quo. The largest health gains were for strategies including strict blood pressure control of 130/80 mmHg, particularly in rural areas.

Interpretation

Based on a nationally representative survey, few adults with diabetes in China achieved optimal control of glycaemia and blood pressure. Substantial health gains and economic savings are potentially achievable with better risk factor control especially in rural settings.

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A Microsimulation Modelling Study

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The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific
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Karen Eggleston
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100690
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Noa Ronkin
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The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) is pleased to invite applications for a suite of fellowships in contemporary Asia studies to begin fall quarter 2023.

The Center offers postdoctoral fellowships that promote multidisciplinary research on contemporary Japan and contemporary Asia broadly defined, inaugural postdoctoral fellowships and visiting scholar positions as part of the newly launched Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab, and a fellowship for experts on Southeast Asia. Learn more about each opportunity and its eligibility and specific application requirements:

Postdoctoral Fellowship on Contemporary Japan

Hosted by the Japan Program at APARC, the fellowship supports research on contemporary Japan in a broad range of disciplines including political science, economics, sociology, law, policy studies, and international relations. Appointments are for one year beginning in fall quarter 2023. The application deadline is December 1, 2022.
 

Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellowship on Contemporary Asia

APARC offers two postdoctoral fellowship positions to junior scholars for research and writing on contemporary Asia. The primary research areas focus on political, economic, or social change in the Asia-Pacific region (including Northeast, Southeast, and South Asia), or international relations and international political economy in the region. Appointments are for one year beginning in fall quarter 2023. The application deadline is December 1, 2022.
 

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The Center offers a suite of fellowships for Asia researchers to begin fall quarter 2023. These include postdoctoral fellowships on contemporary Japan and the Asia-Pacific region, inaugural postdoctoral fellowships and visiting scholar positions with the newly launched Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab, and fellowships for experts on Southeast Asia.

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Beth Duff-Brown
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The Supreme Court ruling eliminating the constitutional right to an abortion could also result in women’s personal reproductive health data being used against them, warns Stanford Health Policy’s Michelle Mello.

The Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization ruling could, for example, lead to a woman’s health data in clinician emails, electronic medical records, and online period-tracking platforms being used to incriminate her or her health-care providers, Mello said.

“Ultimately, broader information privacy laws are needed to fully protect patients and clinicians and facilities providing abortion services,” writes Mello, a professor of health policy and law in this JAMA Health Forum article with colleague Kayte Spector-Bagdady, a bioethicist from the University of Michigan. “As states splinter on abortion rights after the Dobbs Supreme Court decision, the stakes for providing robust federal protection for reproductive health information have never been higher.”

Eight states banned abortions on the same day the Dobbs ruling came down, and 13 states that had “trigger bans” that, if Roe v. Wade were struck down, would automatically prohibit abortion within 30 days. Other states are considering reactivating pre-Roe abortion bans and legislators in some states intend to introduce new legislation to curb or ban the medical procedure.”

Three Potential Scenarios

The authors note these new abortion restrictions may clash with privacy protections for health information, laying out three scenarios that could impact millions of women. And, they note, “despite popular misconceptions about the breadth of the Privacy Rule of the Health Information Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) and other information privacy laws, current federal law provides little protection against these scenarios.”

The first scenario is that a patient’s private health information may be sought in connection with a law-enforcement proceeding or civil lawsuit for obtaining an illegal abortion. HIPAA privacy regulations and Fourth Amendment rights against unreasonable searches and seizures won’t help physicians and hospitals resist such investigative demands, the authors write. And though physician-patient communications are ordinarily considered privileged information, the scope of that privilege varies greatly from state to state. “In many cases medical record information has been successfully used to substantiate a criminal charge,” the authors write.

Ultimately, broader information privacy laws are needed to fully protect patients and clinicians and facilities providing abortion services.
Michelle Mello
Professor of Health Policy, Law

The second privacy concern is the potential use of health-care facility records to incriminate an institution or its clinicians for providing abortion services. Relevant records could include electronic health records, employee emails or paging information and mandatory reports to state agencies. Clinicians may not realize that if they are using an institutional email address or server, their institution likely has direct access to information and communications stored there, which can be used to search for violations. State Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) laws also allow citizens to request public records from employees of government hospitals and clinics.

“Additionally, state mandatory reporting laws for child abuse might be interpreted to cover abortions — particularly if life is defined as beginning at fertilization,” the authors note.

The third scenario is that information generated from a woman’s online activity could be used to show she sought an abortion or helped someone to do so. Many women use websites and apps that are not HIPAA-regulated or protected by patient-physician privilege, such as period-tracking apps used by millions of women that collect information on the timing of menstruation and sexual activity.

“There are many instances of internet service providers sharing user data with law enforcement, and prosecutors obtaining and using cellphone data in criminal prosecutions,” write Mello and Spector-Bagdady, adding commercially collected data are also frequently sold to or shared with third parties.

“Thus, pregnant persons may unwittingly create incriminating documentation that has scant legal protection and is useful for enforcing abortion restrictions,” they said.

The immediate problem, Mello notes, is in the states that have already banned abortion or passed restrictive laws.

“There could be a problem with states trying to reach outside their borders to prosecute people, but that could well be unconstitutional,” Mello said.

Some states’ laws sweep abortion pills into the definition of illegal abortions, she said, and there are legal obstacles to supplying the pills across state lines.

“There is a lot of energy going into figuring out a workaround right now, but it’s too soon to call,” Mello said.

Recommended Protections

So how can clinicians and health-care facilities protect their patients and themselves?

When counseling patients of childbearing age about reproductive health issues, clinicians should caution their patients about putting too much medical data online and refer them to expert organizations that will help them minimize their digital footprint.

When documenting reproductive health encounters, the authors said, clinicians should ask themselves: “What information needs to be in the medical record to assure safe, good-quality care, buttress our claim for reimbursement, or comply with clear legal directives?” For example, does information about why a patient may have experienced a miscarriage need to be recorded?

Patients and clinicians should be aware that email and texting may be seen by others, so conversations among staff about reproductive health issues may best be conducted by phone or in person.

Finally, if abortion-related patient information is sought by state law enforcement officials, a facility’s attorney should be consulted about asserting physician-patient privilege and determining whether the disclosure is mandated by law.

Michelle Mello

Michelle Mello

Professor of Health Policy, Law
Focuses on issues at the intersection of law, ethics and health policy.
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This press release was originally published by the University of Tokyo. It discusses a new study, published by Lancet Public Health and co-authored by researchers from the University of Tokyo along with FSI Senior Fellow Karen Eggleston, director of the Asia Health Policy Program at APARC, and Jay Bhattacharya, Professor of Health Policy and director of the Center for Demography and Economics of Health and Aging at Stanford.


A new detailed microsimulation, using a database of 40 million people, has examined the future of Japan’s aging population up to 2043. It projects that more people will live longer, and that overall years spent living with dementia will decrease. However, the model highlighted the diversity of impacts on different segments of the population, as Japanese women with a less than high school education aged 75 and over may be disproportionately affected by both dementia and frailty. Better understanding where health gaps like this exist can help inform public health planning, to minimize future economic costs and support those most in need.

Taking care of the older members of society is a common concern around the world. Japan is famous for its long-lived residents, the number of which continues to rise. In 2020, almost 30% of the Japanese population was aged 65 years or older, and this age group is not projected to peak until 2034. Caring for people with age-related ailments, such as dementia and frailty, poses a challenge both to individuals and public health care systems.

Microsimulation models, which are computer models that can provide detailed analysis on an individual basis, are currently used to project future population health in some countries, such as the U.K. and the U.S. Professor Hideki Hashimoto and researchers at the University of Tokyo, along with researchers from Stanford University in the U.S., wanted to create a new microsimulation model for Japan, which would take into account more diverse conditions than had been considered before.

“We developed a new Japanese microsimulation model that accounts for 13 chronic conditions (including heart disease, stroke, diabetes, depression and dependency), as well as frailty and dementia,” explained Hashimoto. “Using an ultralarge data system, we were able to ‘follow’ a virtual cohort of more than 40 million people aged 60 and over from 2016 to 2043.”

According to Hashimoto, projections of aging in Japan usually rely on the “average” status of older people and so don’t consider the diversity of the population. “I believe that problems of aging are a matter of health gaps over the course of people’s lives,” he said. “Our projection brings attention to a widening health gap among older people. It highlighted that women with a less than high school education aged 75 or over are more likely to be affected.”

Identifying where health gaps like this exist could be used to better inform public policy, not only about health care but other influential aspects of life. “Japan’s case may suggest that improvement in educational attainment, as well as population health, could be a key to making a healthier and more manageable aging society,” said Hashimoto.

Positively, this study shows hope for a future where many people live longer and more healthy lives. “People might believe that an increase in cases of dementia is inescapable, given population aging. However, in this study we found that in Japan, despite an aging population, the number of people with dementia is expected to decrease over the next two decades,” said Hashimoto. “Population aging does not necessarily mean an increase of social burden for care, but it does bring a diversity of problems that requires careful study and science-based policy attention, to close the health gap.”

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Karen Eggleston

Senior Fellow at FSI and Director of the Asia Health Policy Program, Shorenstein APARC
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A new microsimulation projects that over the next 20 years, Japanese people will live longer without dementia, but older women with a less than high school education will benefit less than men.

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