This paper considers whether Japan has lost or is losing innovation capabilities, and whether the government’s apparent interest in promoting science, technology, and innovation (STI), articulated in a series of STI public policies, ultimately contributed to strengthening Japan’s innovation capabilities. 

The paper focuses on the most consistent among STI policies, namely, those related to nurturing doctorate degree holders, essential human resources for quality research and development. The paper finds that Japan is still a leading country in innovation, but its quality of innovation may be trending down. Incoherences within the STI policies, and between the STI and university reform policies, and insufficient coordination among the government, the private sector, and universities have all undermined the chance of nurturing doctorates and fully taking advantage of their talents to further innovation. The paper also notes recent changes that may contribute to reversing the trend. 

To ensure that public policies achieve their intended objectives, it is essential to assess and evaluate the policies, as well as make timely evidence-based adjustments.