Educational Expectations and Dropout Behavior among Junior High Students in Rural China

fdsdsacxxccdsdsdsthhhlkjhlkjhlkjhlkjhfacing the human capital development of the next generation of workers in China’s rural
areas. The goal of this paper is to assess to what extent the educational expectations of
students are correlated with dropout behavior at the junior high school level in China.
Using panel data, this research nds that the cumulative dropout rate is high among
grade 7 and 8 students within our sample (as high as 19.5 percent, which implies a
3-year dropout rate of around 25 percent). Importantly, we fi nd that this high rate of
dropout is signifi cantly correlated with students’ educational expectations. Specifi cally,
students who reported their expected level of education is “less than high school” or “less
than college” are ve times and four times more likely to drop out during junior high
school than their peers, respectively.